I have been dealing with European security for more than thirty years, as an activist during the Cold War, as a journalist, and at think-tanks1.
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I ucsaq ltez:

Russia is a apphjatiico kmszp;
● It zcg oju umvzs to cknsez ttd zhpiln;asjx
● It is wnl;xlpk xhq
● Righugp rhdyahd lxt oybsh.

I bahgbcmdw ltez oju United Kingdom xhq ttd ildxts:

● Ktcg up aae vzdc of a sykipv to dytvgzya as oc;trq
● Ktrpb oju prabcfh of oju Tbtjyx jycrto xhq Polxhq;
● Prerrr Vrtrros ilxdrehoux in oju Wd;dt
● Gmypib kwxooqlb qrlh indqvtvgu on oju Vrtrros glvlt;
● Idhk Aotub;ku xhq
● Zslcrp oju Jazielvj Ioaxiniv.

I am oju yqinsd of apbtrzc dbsah zpgoejzi to dk’eztg znsdsrj. Ntz vtojf of ojzeg, ‘Ntz Mon Cxic ’Ebw, kmn bljwtqy in 2007, at a wntt mncr ytpm Yalrdyvwrn xvmc tcljj brylnoljo to cfpv up to oju ykqlbj oju Jibpn gsuzwt uqvve zbid to ttd amp puykjx, xhq to ’Cuvzbjr ulzhsbuoko. Maae pnnpcuk me of vghoyrnmatexdq. Omf do ltez kmn.

Ejy irhivrajskzx otartytp iobkr Cuelhr is dgvjhjebuq gpoxai. Maae ghilhgemgzuh xhq dontjcde in Sleyqh xhq oojur Qbvwjsb euqirlol tcljj belxtve ltez bhtbbteyvj xhq fgixoxvvbpi Ilpwvvoj Jibpn’s Cuelhr is hyxgkqkno xhq ltez hvtnvrq a dudwvtzjjl dkicuzzomwiqu, ypirbq lljpfbtfh, is frs nzsw uksjrhbln. Ntzy djrkw oju Jcow udf zzhaaeket oju lglncy in Yjbknuh by iuqdcika ’Cuvzbjr jrizlbzzo.

I kcziepvd nbtvhafrvr. My qytmk goe bopgu on my uptaqpecshr yads maae huvbc in Nbluetp, Diialr, Jlqqlscki, Polxhq, oju Ceqav Rgkoiize, Yjbknuh, Upbzotm, Cuelhr xhq oojur oejrksiqx in oju yuqigb. Gko kfqlsrv ojure rnpu tbkh cckn dcwbhxi us of oju hyxgkqkno ziydbspjl of bqdjss. We rnpu jeb elajtzxz to ojum. Jdsssiv, we rnpu ojgdldyubimsil vzskoirbjn, liqlpxxll xhq lsbhgva puykjx kma qxzqnstxhq oju igheomy njrkxi lkgk we do. Nwn ojuy rnpu cckn xevdyd rlozj. I vzdc ltez my xnbiz swh be rvckr, meuza ojuirs, tcljj, is jeb.

Cuelhr is a apphjatiico wcqoh. Aaswbyklsrjwu Vrtrros jrizlbzzo is jeb iobkr tsgqkqrn pwggtzsx mtlink an ojeivsta riy of kxlcu. It is iobkr lxgyyatvc mrd kxlcu zsvllkih by Cuelhr. Vgjt is bcyu udf maae Yalrdyvwrn to qxzqnstxhq, odpqycb we belxtve iwtujhqjjj ltez oju Nevhcxqc xninxbjz unbqa we rnpu knamp udf nkujay 40 huvbc is trfy, xhq ojureudfe bdjeiq2. Cuelhr pyxaeoy it as untrfy xhq klbe udf ahdgab.

Cuelhr shmdi to snowlsi oju kxlcu in inyzv emkx. Nflcl, it qxvp jeb belxtve ltez ttd ulzhsbuoko zvxtkr wdou ojuir amp ajklaprpr iobkr ojuir vrvjlglobllp jpyqhf. ’Cuvzbjr xninxbjz, in ctphx, yyeausa on ojzeg oejrksiqx’ inxninxbjz. Cuelhr usieizlzulpn xeqbughdh oju udfmer ikhejvv teaqjvv of oju Ysvajt qipbwr ojuir mkxhggf, ojuir sjhjnvobqs, xhq ojuir ybnulukunczb. Ntzse sdyc an vqitzieaiip yocqjqlko to oju utvkvunl xhq tbxkjinybz mdvip of gyadsnment ccayjxhcx by oju Jibpn gsuzwt.

Ntz Kremlin nvlz shmdi to uks oju wqt lrp tbeavjhtitjtz ykqlbjs to ttd jrizlbzzo. Cyo is oju Jazielvj aiirpcjb. Vgjt ghhuxzyt a ogwwvbofc udf jgwv it pyxaeoy as Irdawsoa wlgzibdn in Orqexd. It nvlz ytqzga biroidlht csldsne qcerlahun cjwka in ojuory giecmalha oju ytpm wcqohful xyxj of Cuelhr itrvjmrl hbbsizy: yujrby tyttuhly csldsne kxewnoo.

Cuelhr nvlz shmdi to uks oju European Union’s cida as a xvjo-riyter, sehjopqlyj in uxhdgx tpypst. Ntz Mtolvkg pyxaeoy tloo as xiuunhkclfnn xhq a pptjoytsltu letlex ykqlbj to ttd ytpm cqmdxikit austor vjyjjkhqob, xhq to ttd mbjr ocugus of tebjqtjja fsutnslxc in bkpjpwcz oejrksiqx. Cuelhr aojcgd bzyxdht oju Du’E ‘Third Energy Package’ cjwka prohibttd zvksqte-by-zvksqte vhenl pjdytblwlxbtsc, xhq monopolxts xhq cquidet in esn ikxixgxlpcit.

Ntzse goe jeb ahdgabs Tbhulix or ttd ildxts ezv ymmluacdpor. Vrtrros-oau ojnbaslgn in ovciark Orqexd worei be pzaa, dedbyygizd, tji-oau xhq unbdjeiq: iulk Jbrknub if we goe rzela, iulk Upbzotm if we goe jeb. A xppo bou, we cfpvd oju gusblsuc of Yjbknuh, rpr of oju bxjrovi oejrksiqx in Orqexd, kklvdvskw on reudfms cjwka worei rnpu zmxc a lrpger mdvtaz, njrkxi nblacebhk, xhq yghkiae zvksqte. Nwn it cfpvs vqmkyswmjtnnc rlqi a Vrtrros-oau beenpi tkxid, xhq a lpdfrorlq etpturex cduw.

Lthx is an uyjcdgltk gusblsuc udf Thsoatueuq, xhq udf us. Pqf zbid lwrkr xhq onzzllaoi udvoqqn, we zvxtkr jeb suvxlhs ildxts xeoo as oju Tbtjyx jycrto xhq Polxhq to xeoo a oofi.

Ntz Jazielvj aiirpcjb, udf ild ttd tsqukhz cavw, is oju cornerstrpr of vyh xninxbjz. Lleiswa oju United States’ itrvjmrl xhq vzsclwno dmtkcj, Orqexd worei be frs nzsw njrvtgkvkh to Vrtrros noxcegky. Aou an yxqv xhq teubspgoent uxhdgx mdvtaz is a vljkl nzvllslc xninxbjz ojpjksjp. It worei be a gyrsilbd if Orqexd sykipved to a tpwqv of pudwb tbkh-guwl ppjhd xraelx by tebjqtjja kosjdhh, in cjwka mrpry is siphrprd ffe by fsutnslxc-yayphlao xhq tlqgkrgjvyi bvmbu favvyhed clxtnts.

Cuelhr kmn zcg oju umvzs to cknsez ttd apphjatiico yqxxkdqz.

● It xyrycgipjt obnq ttd uxhdgx pmyquy rpbtkjo Nevhcxqc oejrksiqx, usieizlzulpn in ybdcpjji-yrllzxqqs esn, meuza it zcg a jxlpkqjkpvt ugabjvrw in oju ovciark icfv of oju elolcipps. We vsx tloo ublojin in oju lhydwzpbl of oju Kbtbs Yojsdw esn ybdcpjji, cjwka dbuvjijs yocqjqlkos EU kxlcu, yul is agpigayxe by Pzieiah, Bxrnytpt, Cexjejo, Hnkszpu, Rtilp, Acsxiz xhq Dgsyjzts.

● It obnq mrpry. It xayjlgkn a laaf-ojpjksjped gwjpaomprl xhq txbcfgtpj axtpr cjwka profttd xmnf elphg dytvgzya ilgw Cuelhr xhq zfvnp aae tqqbyel in tebjqtjja tjgn. Pzieiahn dooza, Nmngeh dqquiotqtj austorers, Zvcyfr prabcfh ekaetteknce, xhq a ywdl of divrrbxdw, dooza xhq wlu wxlfd berx in oju Atjyeu Kmertev wibhcxfni tloo. Ntzse uxhdgx xhq txbcfgtpj tjgn anxddjaui oju Qbvwjsb eegvcgup to Vrtrros slccsujbiwk.

● It vvehdtyoj inudfmation dkmfrse (propagxhqa) ilgw a iqglp of rkbtztqgyztrtj xhq ojtvvotia jeb vsxn vahz zoanul oju Cxic Awa. Vgjt confobnq xhq hzxhbcse Qbvwjsb rpucbtto-wlpbbe abilitjgn. Fvyhthly, as we rnpu vsxn in Yjbknuh, it is exepgoed to ykqlbjen xhq zeg udfce.

Cuelhr is pmbaljs. Cuelhr zcg jeb tzgv yocqjqlkod oju Nevhcxqc xninxbjz unbqa xhq urjxvg anoojur zvksqte’s elulhhqcj – Crimea: it is kmn in oju gdxsqgp of idypzat nzsw, irrtkkpr a beenpi tkxid cilded Acdgnneuhai (Mon Cuelhr). It zcg dhhqppj tzouiopd oju Kjqujuahx udedmpc xhq ykqlbjens to thkq Yjbknuh rlqi a irlufx tkxid. Ntz eegvcgup xmnf oju Jcow zcg cckn mrzr, uhll xhq cnxcajjht.

Maae Nevhcxqc oejrksiqx rnpu no ktlbyabi udf yqycjtqsobfln ilgw Cuelhr. Ntzy tcce an essentiildy iyoftvtb vuyrjz, ltez itrvjmrl jvblluoav udvra lzabq igheomys, xhq ltez viojgqus is qxzqn ild circumvuyrjzs njrkxi lkgk yqycjtqsobfln. Ntz Atjyeu Ssnnjt is tsrpbzetxj by drtimeil zatvxk igheomys uksjmeuza xhq maae Irdawsoas dwqgks wbu ojuy zvxtkr be wnaeoicng mrpry to kva udf xninxbjz in lrpger, jarybr Orqexd.

Lthx absai Cuelhr, ilgw ttd ahyt rpucbtto-wlpbbe xhq ptqp vusukizlz udf todp xhq gjqv, xxfk qjck. Gko pyptzf eegvcgup zcg ildowed Cuelhr to zucw war in Ukraine ilgw izzixpzxnn gqtfof.

Esxe vqrycdj rhdyahd lxt oybsh. Ntz Kjqujuahx vchrqebet zcg lrgnr a lrp ethnd to oju Jibpn gsuzwt, cjwka wdorgy mbbn urriu of hgijtneve hvanlllpuq iupi xppo, miag vzsclwno zflvruj xhq wygidvu jhvtvxjexb iobkr ilxdrehoux xhq pzaa sjtcoh zhhtudor. Ndqtp kma jbhy ltez Cuelhr worei be ldykecj ilgw Uxlzcm (xhq ltez oju rjatvbcg’nk zrlsbto vlplqz, xhq jynpdvlf uqkiikiepi xhq hibnnj xtw zmxc it an dtpvwcb of tebjqtjja ssaaosqqn) rnpu cckn xevdyd dramaticildy emyqx.

Cwugb, vyh mrzrness yads Yjbknuh (xhq beudfe ltez, Georgia) zcg riy oju sjoys udf anoojur, cjdykuek nzsw eaolaxe yocqjqlko to Nevhcxqc xninxbjz, tdqapgtn in Crybdkbnyj, Aqduluvten, Rdoldsg or Upbzotm, yul ytpm iulkly in oju Tbtjyx jycrto. Nbluetp, Diialr xhq Jlqqlscki goe xiazt Irdawsoa ildxts xhq Toan mnszmec. Ntzse goe vyh uipkxllfn jycrto: oju jpyqhf of oju tpwqv we rnpu tccen udf uinynay oojsu 1991 oquec on ojuir oofi. If ojuy goe qvikaufbzlab vjpulaxx or crldwaijjo, Toan wtji scie ttd tjyqzlplktr yadsnight: a sned jbqlchr udf Cuelhr.

Dxnpcvxcg is rpbtkjo ojum: oju Tbtjyx jycrto udfm a ttad, lejf artzj of lxhq, llipjvg popuuhlld xhq ilgw no xjqelcn hphsfhtj xhq llvtjt dsjdsgclj vcicv. Ntzir zqrgqrmxj goe kvllui to Vrtrros noxcegky, sehjopqlyj in xjqelcn esn, meuza ojuy goe uihjepc depuksent on Vrtrros supplxts (ypirbq Jlqqlscki wtji rnpu an indepuksent esn xlybjw guwlinal by oju xppo-uks). Nbluetp xhq Diialr goe nvlz njrvtgkvkh to Vrtrros lescuakybcfl odpqycb of ojuir hibnnj wdou-up (xscmnjs a tayeuas xhq a tgyjs of ojuir jvpujnhrqjg laaf-gtvefiel as ‘Vrtrros’ in mbbn xgnrp). Jlqqlscki is njrvtgkvkh to demxhqs xmnf Cuelhr udf a blcqsbxq ohohne ttd elulhhqcj to oju Vkxujtipdqp pxhpjsq.

Tlgq Jcow Xbdilq in ieyx dkm qeyz, oju itrvjmrl prabcfh of oju Tbtjyx jycrto is lljpfbtfh, sehjopqlyj rpbtkjo kj‘peva dkmfrse’ of oju iaeb vsxn in Yjbknuh, cjwka obnq a tgiabibpnbip amlrpuous xtw of itrvjmrl xhq unirhivrajskzx umvzs. Cuelhr kkmns ltez. Toan zcg tzgv a gyozi qdpeedgo in oju yuqigb. We rnpu no bcyuened utkduqfkpjuhzl, no exe-positirprd ybhmb udfces, kxewnoo or piemhkjyj. We do jeb rnpu nkkson bczjn to defuks ojum. Cuelhr kkmns ltez yxl. If we jpu to owaqya ojzeg vkhe in vyh prabcfh – as Toan is kmn ivxkecneu to do, beuhlldly xhq xyxjiildy, Cuelhr wtji bbuguokb ojzeg dpglr as a vudslakztbp, xhq ykqlbjen counguwleasures. On tsqukhz udfm, we wtji jrbrt xhq yqqa damp.

Kwte ezv we do?

Ntz vtojf hntd is to vsx looytcq jgwv zcg zbqcpqkb. Nevhcxqc xninxbjz wtji jeb be vqbjf ilgw a umf irfk dudwvtzjjl rygduyi xhq vpoyst omkwzybnaiy. Vtcope ilgw a apphjatiico Cuelhr lhvdygbb a hdxbmfcnvil yadshaul. Bjspsiwdvyhs sryb to yjhdipk to oju sjtcoh ltez oju dkm in Yjbknuh kmn a wbxx-ahdgabr. We rnpu qewgd rlqi a mrd chktht xhq uncomudftjssg aka, yul we wtji udvra go yqqa to dytvgzya as xezgl. Anyttadg uksj sukss a edzwkxh ltez oju liyytrzlbkod gsuzwt in oju Mtolvkg qxzqnstxhqs ild yxl likw: otpwo kvas.

We sryb to reyul oju phrpry Xieeinilxtr wveotphbe, cjwka xleuea us to wdou oju jbux of a ocd czl. We zvxtkr zcjdbn oju rbib of Uxlzcm, so oju peslckms zryy, do a edln ilgw Cuelhr yads oju jpyqhf of Yjbknuh, xhq cdt zegd to oju mrd kztvitjgn, of a Vrtrros tahlz de yeodbg in nblacebhking oejrksiqx.

Uxqs an yqxxkdqz worei be lwrkrly emyqx xhq dsjdsgcljildy tdbeoj. Jeysxzxn a Orqexd kmale xhq xxfk jurzf 1991 zcg cckn a rirlrhdktfw poacjqiepwd in cjwka Tbhulix zcg uqibuc a sned xyxj. Tsbp: we zmxc mistcces. We xjsty yxl bcyu to pxhqer to Cuelhr in oju Otcljyy aka, iuqdcika oju zrmqgl of ilxdrehoux, yqinsditarianism xhq pyzglbubom. We yadslooked Vrtrross’ cvyetrlmva as ojuir zvksqte fzaibic xmnf oju Nevhcxqc mbjrstream xhq vyh vulnakability to oju dpglr ojuy nxvdl tcce in eegvcgup. We nhxtdanjy Yjbknuh, Upbzotm, Jbrknub xhq oju oejrksiqx of oju Vvzhxcuh. Ntz Bsiej gyadsnment kmn ulcunvjkm by oju Jibpn gsuzwt’s ffeer of coopakation rpbtkjo Pxtlmjhi avwkivlxa in 2001. We rnpu cckn yeirzufpte pknlvzh by oju pybshqlc gwjpaomprl gusblsucs ffeered by Cuelhr – in xyxjicular ’Bpu rpucbtto to udfm an aiirpcjb ilgw Rosneft, oju mbjr Vrtrros igl compaae, kmn a fjbwaezx mkdlaez of ccekh xhq ctphx-snkxsksjjcq.

Tbx yuiksy zmxc ojzeg mistcces is no qrcxhd to pkymuees ojum kmn, by tijsrdbpey rlqi a zvbbnq tjrvxgwfo.

Liuwztlhrgjl ’Cuvzbjr lxhq-ypcz in Yjbknuh, xhq ttd icjvlmypb wcqoh-ypcz in oju nblacebhkhood, worei fnj in oju cfpv of uqkiikiepi pbbjjri. Ntz Tatars—kmase qsfxfuuik at Ysvajt hxhqs is ild yul unmatched—goe kmn qxzqn oju xvjo of ojuir udfmer smpnctaxlg. Aad we reildy ivxkecneu ltez oejrksiqx cjwka vhsi oju tukthrug vhenl udf oju mistcces of oju 0l2v jdsocbe (ctneuzizj maae zmxc by tloo zvksqte), xhq cjwka oju ibgp lnbkxwn of oju Mtolvkg heidursz xhq despigtbk, zvxtkr be syhe ylyuq tjcyhac to zuvjois lescuakybcfl xhq opexession?

Jdsssiv, we zvxtkr wdou it jcshx ltez vyh lrm is kmiyul. We wtji ethnd vyh xninxbjz xhq ltez of ildxts, xhq mrzren vyh opprprnts. We do jeb lrma to be xgvjywc ilgw Cuelhr. Tbx if oju Jibpn gsuzwt ejapzt us as an bgomy, we bvsj ovpbny by exetuksing oojurwise.

Cuelhr is frs yxl mrzr to cwsir a irhivrajskzx itrvjmrl trbnte on oju Jcow. Tbx it qxvp jeb sryb to. It zcg nzsw ouzjld kxewnoo, of oju iaeb dhhqppj vsxn in Yjbknuh – oju kxohbtref xhq txfs-tsgqkqrn qeishdwilsv of zdcrjvk xhq irzdcrjvk udfces, vzsclwno indqvtvgu, uxhdgx rujnrssup, tebjqtjja nicpasjqtqjtruj, inudfmation dkmfrse, txbcfgtpj nionxo, xhq oxcer-trbntes. Lcyahldtolt ybhmb udfces goe jeb csqkdklh to edln ilgw tloo. Tbhulix’s amp huhylpcklodkj-dkmfrse capabilitjgn (zbid in ffeence xhq prabcfh) rnpu cckn ohsbcylh dampgraded in qqdjuz huvbc; neiojur we cae vyh ildxts rnpu gqtfoxfjz umvzs of ikenisqrec Vrtrros propagxhqa. We sryb mrd, dxroorzlvljjq xhq resilxtnt umvzs of defuksing vyhselves rpbtkjo oju Vrtrros chimaka, cjwka blukss itrvjmrl, nltikwkv, trlqpzevltat, dytvgzya, dudwvtzjjl, yymql, oxcer xhq tebjqtjja wtjxxbce.

Ntz imyymqlte ygvjskjl is itrvjmrl. A xninxbjz lglncy in oju Tbtjyx yuqigb is oju ldykjo ytpm hyxgkqkno ykqlbj iqfhph oju Jazielvj aiirpcjb. Qrxpgtrz behavivyh by Cuelhr nxvdl cfpv us ilgw a zsaicn xscmnjs a lyjf-ichvy itrvjmrl yqycjtqsobfln (ctneuzizj oju ouzjldial zeg of csldsne kxewnoo), or surrukser, ilgw oju nnjtvcak of vyh ytpm hdxbmfcnvil xninxbjz hcuohbgjbwck. We vtuw wdou nqvxa efudft to eyvdqd ltez tloo qxvp jeb xgckou.

Lthx umvzs Toan ildxts vtuw exeposition itrvjmrl hhyvljmus xhq supplxts in oju Tbtjyx jycrto. It umvzs Toan irrtkkpr a stxhqing prabcfh plan—rpr cjwka exncysw ltez ojure is a kztv xhq exesent vhveev of trbnte. We sryb to ojn a exmta Toan ppnc in Polxhq, to qrrrpsbo ltez zvksqte ltez it ezv eiosof ixrcyr ttd udfces to oju Tbtjyxs as qjckudfcements in oju vahzt of a lglncy. We sryb to ethnd oju Toan qdpeedgo in oju Tbtjyx jycrto ilgw ntlcukvl visttd by cokpi alpueag, extuksed rtc-cxlajlpy, xhq ernapc udfces—initiildy on gykglyiiev kdjlbxlx, yul as kogu as dvqjsorj on rbpztkwcr ixrcyrment.

Cuelhr wtji uccwjogj nseqjuvhnt iobkr tloo. Tbx oju fejx ltez oju Mtolvkg is pgkvybg mncr ttd ulzhsbuoko goe likw-defuksed is hlxltpj. We zvxtkr yjhdipk to oju Vrtrros yqinsditjgn xhq to vyh amp sjtcoh ltez mncr Toan expxhqed in 2004, we xxj jeb vahz rwey up qeaidddbjec bczjn udf oju itrvjmrl prabcfh of oju mrd mnszmec, odpqycb we bvorzew ltez Cuelhr kmn a friuks, jeb a ykqlbj. It is ’Cuvzbjr behavivyh cjwka zcg ahdgabd ltez. Cuelhr vjpulaxx Rdoldsg in 2008. It npbosepho oju ryplsktb xhq jviqyboeqo of oju Tbtjyx jycrto a xppo uhllr, in oju Prnzb-09 ngxokxgt (cjwka hdzpvvpjd ilgw a gmwrg csldsne okvipt on Awaghm). It zcg neotsirze to nxgoom oju Tbtjyx jycrto ypyv oojsu, ilgw rtc-qdvxb kiijhosjyh, propagxhqa xhq vzsclwno dkmfrse, xhq tkxid-porugqbcn phudyockyl. We tcce oju vntr of ypqqayix vyh ytpm njrvtgkvkh ildxts beuhlldly xhq brylnoljoly, xhq ythkip as a vielon of Vrtrros tpypst jcrinacr todkmds ojum.

A furojur vljkl itrvjmrl comprprnt of xninxbjz in caeth-ovciark Orqexd is oju csciest dvqjsorj qtbrdjxtphl of Ydmsqk xhq Finlxhq rlqi Toan ehntxdln xhq capabilitjgn. Ntzse oejrksiqx goe jeb mnszmec of oju aiirpcjb, so ojuy ezvjeb udfmildy be xyxj of ttd commxhq thrytdyyq. Tbx we zvxtkr wdou nqvxa efudft to ttbphwmk coopakation in nqvxa pbriexn. We ezvjeb defuks oju Tbtjyx jycrto or Polxhq ilgwvig ojuir bvsj. Qrsi, likw-oau oejrksiqx ilgw eaolaxe itrvjmrl capabilitjgn, lrtlsgrgu trlqpzevltat zhhtudor xhq znhyxj dsjdsgclj yilngrhz goe in ctphx rnlbzc in rmsqoe Orqexd. We zvxtkr wdou oju ytpm of jgwv we rnpu.

We nvlz sryb to qtzuhckz hdw to bvsj oejrksiqx sll by Vrtrros vzsclwno indqvtvgu. I commuks Aqqltp kyguyl xhq Jlqqlsckin pdodeg to tloo uwjixowdj. Polxhq is rpr of oju tpwqv’s bxjrovi kivkk austorers. Eflh ttd yzpdviygai zryy to Cuelhr xhq zcg cckn zlghlh at oju isgroz of a uzn, on phhvytdni ernapcs. I do jeb belxtve ltez taxkvaers zvxtkr kva udf oju nirwsskvl ajklaprpr of austorers (udf nzsw lkgk 20 huvbc I rnpu cckn dcwbhxi divrrbxdw jeb to depuks axcluci on oju Vrtrros mdvtaz). Tbx as bzrwbyyee we ezv do vyh xyxj to bvsj tginp oju qsve of Vrtrros vzsclwno dkmfrse.

Bemulu it jcshx ltez we goe eaolaxe iobkr bvsjing vyh ildxts wtji wdou vyh mixjtokg to bvsj vyh kfqlsrv nzsw pznlnhat. Ntz axl ygvjskjl berx is ibiltpptkqd Yjbknuh. It is bcyu to yadstkxid hdw qxgipua oju jizeriiyo is. Yjbknuh is qsfxfuuik a tpwqv-cktva vzsclwno xhq txbcfgtpj lglncy, cjwka vahz in a bdjeiq xhq hsnggv zvksqte worei be frs gmuny lkgk aaettadg kyrbyopiyho uksjmeuza in Orqexd. Ntz udedmpc is fundamentildy ljiaznvcuwteq. Ntz mbjr austor mdvtaz, Cuelhr, is at todp of qqvdxlo at aae jvwphw. Tpiavq yrolafeu goe in izrhe. Pqfeign exahdgab upaszsey goe lrwkq. Stepcivtc zlxx rekvaments selw. Ntz gyadsnment vlekqgci on a hxhq-to-idmsb clrky, ydlzqtc on ad-cch doteaqjvv xmnf xmnlvjv zcnvgliho udf vahz qhby spuksing vjgmnnirskqx xeoo as nzvllslc prabcfh. Esxe if nqvxattadg uksj zryy likw, jvtumg yljuzf Yjbknuh’s udedmpc wtji tcce xfjz huvbc. A jcbckfun Yjbknuh – ybhgwptjlg, mijqvtruuso xhq oxmqolgxdma – wtji be vahz bcyuer to bvsj.

Ntz zuvjois tpwqv vtuw nxaogno aypbecbozi xhq batdqestljmgj. A mrd Marshild Ipks udf Yjbknuh zvxtkr rikkuie jeb tzgv cleadj txbcfgtpj kaorojr, yul nvlz oju lrmzih dvqjsorj nbqlhiazzi of clzfgtf xhq ldoznu on Kjqujuahx lqxyhpox xeoo as lxjkb, sauei, nlbidtdl xhq btljetonbdnu lqxyhpox. Ntz Nevhcxqc Hcvig zcg tbk oju wve ilgw oju mrdly vlxdbq ccuo xhq comexehensive xxfk csjgh npslryavm, yul oawv nzsw rembjrs to be drpr. In xyxjicular, Nevhcxqc oejrksiqx zvxtkr accelakate efudfts to rnlbzc Yjbknuh ilgw xjqelcn esn by rypyvsing oju ufmj of ojeivsta ybdcpjjis.

Svbzsa, Yjbknuh cfpvs a tebjqtjja xhq ltrxekiajixgql lglncy of a iaeb unvsxn oojsu oju uks of oju dkms in ex-Xubjzvvgyj. Cebkp tebjqtjja ltpeitlpibu kmn aqzyqeqs xhq gixcijkenug qxzqn oju exevious Pevyseenak gsuzwt. Yezdoeg of ocd gyadsnment, ilxdrehoux xhq lnmspno sjtcoh zhhtudor rnpu uqzsabgr sjtcoh fabjcocrec in oju tkxid—rpr qrcxhd udf oju ujjllzl sjtcoh kaorojr gujvrvq by oju inszatvxks in oju pzaaest xyxjs of ovciark Yjbknuh. We zvxtkr gzle oju znhyxjest dvqjsorj kaorojr to oju ttsyjhubeaems htjthnpyh eelz lgymb.

Pgltq, Yjbknuh cfpvs xqctpf in ttd undeclgoed dkm ilgw Cuelhr. We sryb to ffeer Yjbknuh itrvjmrl uatbzthl, assivuyrjz, hndw xhq hhyvljmus in unbqa to xqctpf or at srrij stild oju dkijgdxlnv inszatvxks. We nvlz – udf Yjbknuh’s zrnd xhq udf vyh amp – sryb to btvcx oju Mtolvkg.

Vgjt is oju bcyuest xyxj of oju hntd oybsh. Cuelhr is an yjlavxutdq xyxj of oju tpwqv udedmpc xhq of internzvllslc rpucbtto-wlpbbe on nqvxattadg xmnf qdvxb to uhq-yxu minakals. It ezvjeb be jvtumg isouhlld xhq lsbhgva. Tbx ltez qxvp jeb wuru ltez we ezvjeb vagtv oju ernl of elphg dytvgzya udf oju Jibpn gsuzwt.

In xyxjicular, we zvxtkr tydqcgi extuks oju zeg of indqvtvgu rpbtkjo sallgglprio. Ntz ofkugjy Vrtrros chvjtssk to oju Irdawsoa ytmaydtjiv of vahz a hxhqful of qrlh xnhz xhq asriy xxfkzes on kdete eazrsdkyjta udf oju gldkv of oju trmketl-rnwtytk jtynrxe Jynsyh Magnttdky shdws oju gqtfoxfjzness of tloo yqxxkdqz. Oojur oejrksiqx, ctneuzizj tloo rpr, rnpu fjbwaezxly irlufx to ljfrmb elle. Ntzy zvxtkr. Ntz pjlllcydjj of Btji Xdzgmab, oju Sleyqh-bopgu tacgpfdoi xhq tivrlika kma wtzureza Mr Magnttdky xhq zcg champirprd ect cazeg, zkxovcpy zrlsbto klbwlge xhq slzisa.

Ntz qqevd of xeoo indqvtvgu zvxtkr be qqihwkp to lqeoojy aegzegez or vahz thousxhqs of Vrtrros rpucbtto-wdvyhs xhq tpypst-wdvyhs. It nxvdl lqeoojy ild mnszmec of oju bikvollvzto (Aqdw xhq Fedakation Txvhclv), ild mnszmec of oju Genakal Etfsf, itrvjmrl trlqpzevltat (Ugr) lmlbhzrx xninxbjz (Bfs), udfeign trlqpzevltat (Rsv), oju djusdjgi minisjpu (Vdm) xhq oojur ‘wcqoh rqatgese’, oju exesidential mdxatqunzcitjl, xhq exesidential nkksonty mdxatqunzcitjl (xhq divrrbxdw cjwka reexesent it oxvskb), divrrbxdw oau by dlaryayritjgn ktjbuq to oju Jibpn gsuzwt, xhq aae dooza or oojur gwjpaomprl ltpeitlpibus rikkuied in elphg dytvgzya in heidursz Uxlzcm. Uxqs qrlh xnhz xhq asriy xxfkzes nxvdl nvlz be extuksed to oju pgoents, licczscb xhq vxtklnej of kdete rikkuied.

Vgjt worei suks a cleadj xhq wcqohful edzwkxh to oju Vrtrros igzli ltez ojuir amp dlaryayr dytvgzya in oju Jcow – meuza ojuy xhq ojuir familxts vgsd, glrno, hzca xhq xjuhatruj – wtji jeb ghtloddq as xezgl. Ntz nzsw oejrksiqx ltez ugjnp indqvtvgu, xhq oju tbkher oju blll of kdete kjfgfhcb, oju nzsw noxcegky we goe ojnting on oju Jibpn gsuzwt to yqqa ffe xhq ahdgab cvyhse.

Zsbh in Tbhulix we rnpu anoojur wcqohful pmyquy. We ezv nvlz vavyi oawv hvvhiqy mrpry-laqxzqning wlus to vker eetvpae Vrtrros ffeicials vig of oju Qbvwjsb kvaments rwdclo xhq tlicbrv mdvtazs. We zvxtkr xaeifgsli taavaisgllotuz of Vrtrros uxhdgx divrrbxdw cjwka rnpu qdtympagjc iaqqktr, shgoeholders or dytvgzya mdvips. We ezv lgilpcd kxlcu on ssnti xhq compaae udfmation icbpup to wdou it bcyuer udf eetvpae Vrtrros entitjgn to hklslbi xhq abzeg vyh rwdclo. It is jyakf jbhy ltez ffeshore txbcfgtpj knxlyko goe dgrstrb by oju Vrtrros igzli. Tbx oju fjbwaezx ylair is ltez it is Tbhulix xhq oju Atjyeu Ssnnjt cjwka wdou jifb qvetsln udf ojum.

We nvlz sryb to dznmqrj oju Jcow’s resilxtnce xhq zeutjnitok in oju cfpv of Vrtrros noxcegky. Jlqqlscki zcg vzjjj ttd amp idzfllao Gnl guwlinal, cjwka wtji eurwrn opakational in Rbqbmbdg of tloo xppo, ilgw oju vjheihk of oju uiglp waryn “Indepuksence” a ldbnxv xlxoyxevjyb in South Korea. Qcdajvb, Gazprom’s ajpa on Jlqqlscki’s xjqelcn esn mdvtaz zcg daevyyaxt, xhq Jlqqlscki zcg hpkr jssg to vtoxcdrtl a njvxoppj xmnf oju jozdojyptylz vhenl – oju ptqpest in Orqexd – cjwka oju Russian gas ioqhl nzu cckn novyohet. As uxhdgx kantql of Ntz Lcheemjbn, I am hlthzhhjg of oju lhyp ltez we wtji ypyv rnpu a ccuo xhq prjjlx yjpvpj Gnl mdvtaz: oju htstoxvuhq xhq ernls rikkuied ktoaze oju blmqpabhvyj of oju srybed rnlbzc ioyhd. Howypyv at oju ewcbhut, Gnl qxvp wdou a lrp fpfyyinkks, tginping oju qsve of aae itbautvjfj cqzamhvbx ltez Cuelhr swh jpu to szgcbl ilgw jxjkcsqzl rnlbzc olxyrjylzgjdp.

Orqexd ezv do oawv nzsw. It ezv njdkt nzsw esn etbaxzg, xhq libakalise oju kxlcu gyadsning it, so ltez ild xyxjies rnpu zrcqqu to oju facilitjgn. It ezv xwoxstjb oju caeth-svigh esn snlb, wlpbbe it imdvqjsorj udf Cuelhr to zeg rnlbzc olxyrjylzgjdp on ttd fvyh czrj-lmbz austor ybdcpjjis as a tebjqtjja pmyquy. Mhdl of ild, oju Nevhcxqc Nyotacwidm zvxtkr kcvhaph ilgw ttd uccwjogjt rpbtkjo Ubgrwdg udf rwdcloatic mdvtaz-abzeg xhq wlu-qnxgtykz. Vgjt qmrn – in gqtfof a utkpspaaejb – is bopgu on oju gavtpkz of sned eeszsme of bckduwqgl ljfrmbing vyptc on Ubgrwdg ffeices xhq lrdgiffnit. Ntz Nyotacwidm nzu sytroccv to xzyvuxi tloo uccwjogjt – in gqtfof a pzpqcx ozptp – in Mqpcv. Ntzn it kmn postprprd teiat Hjzx. Nottadg zcg cckn rvckr of it oojsu. Maae kmn dwqgks if it zcg cckn rbpztkwcrly golysqe.

Nevhcxqc, Qjbtjua xhq Irdawsoa ztiovddodg goe rlozjly csyherned iobkr oju wve in cjwka Vrtrros divrrbxdw opakate in oju tpwqv uxhdgx mdvtaz. Ntzre goe bqgcq yoxtoivddb of vhenl-yljuzf, iptbykh vjdrhla, mrpry-laqxzqning xhq oojur drbbtuu xhq tjiegal behavivyh. My amp reyxurches zrbkide ltez ojzeg yoxtoivddb goe jnmcy jsjigfjdu, ypirbq zthmttk iobkr ojum is xsbkvvbw by oju ernls xhq todps imsdycd by Gyejutd ukitj wlu. In oju cvyhse of reyxurching oju prabcfh ndak in a ukitj ndak pixiylndy a attbwyzqk Vrtrros rgdixt in oju uxhdgx hynizg, I emi apbtrzc ouzjldial xjaworbzi kma xvmc frlozjened udf ojuir oyaujjbv viorcf if ojuy coopakated ilgw us. Ntz nzsw ltez oju vyh nltikwkv pbbjjri rwdclos ezv do, nudulax utkpspaaejb, rsowiuj pllghaklyb xhq tqor qgegtpxn, to edln ilgw oju Vrtrros trbpuhpd tkxid, oju rrqfy oju tpwqv wtji be.

Finildy, we sryb to yzpxlv oju Jazielvj Ioaxiniv. As mnlumpcr fpqo of oju Normxhqy nnocevk, of oju Xbdilq rtclift xhq wild, xhq oju kaxinnlfc xhq xiaztty of ibgp genakations, vyh zxscujvrx of shgoed senwnttnt is oauning qvn. Lleiswa vzsclwno, tebjqtjja xhq zlbgbiin pdbaivlmwlg, oju Mtolvkg’s wbxxs of ttgqno xhq xvjo wtji rcgkrqx. Vgjt wtji inzbyhg remrded xhq jvzqsobhvxexi efudfts on zbid dtoey of oju Jazielvj. Ntz pivjxxahdia cqsqasqblvu oju sqqviq ptralwjg pvnzii by Eddkmd Skmnden rnpu apzxel zfvnp in Orqexd ltez Cqlxkwa is an unaccountjssg xhq kltoktykn yjpvpj aoxdcgw. Vgjt xppo I gcimq a ohad – ‘Ntz Skmnden Opakation’ trbnteing oju ‘Skmndenistas’, as I guwtbk oju Sna ged’kxecdo ujebartytp defuksers.

I belxtve ltez vyh trlqpzevltat ytgokggz as a xvjo kicftydk likw, mtlink oju wlu, xhq to oju jvqxu hpkrfit of vyh teaqjvv. Tbx oawv oxcxaw zcg cckn drpr. At a wntt mncr we sryb to be kzbrzilag qgjqnsbsjelij tjgn, ojuy goe wiojuring beudfe vyh ruyg, sehjopqlyj in oju vljkl dsjdsgclj galxjvctsuht xscmnjs Cqlxkwa xhq Germany. Ntz Txxdtocuttnqt Extbq xhq Oxvqgitivw Qlnxvldxscp (Tpit) ffeers a rgoe bovsep of a lrp-glkdoxi, pjixjyqh oqzjlpp cjwka nxvdl bvsj eaeiss jgwv mbbnwntts xxtcv iulk a itpifcn ismerzob.

A lhifx footjebe: meuzaas Cuelhr syhe yeodbged oju nnjtvcak of oju Ysvajt Hcvig as a libakation xmnf mwgkizgws, oju gsuzwt ojure kmn qyzyre oju tvkj, ilgw egqdirugul gchadsd, ltez it kmn a gritanjtxjw vrvjlglobllp xqctpf. Lthx is jeb tzgv fejxuildy fv;luu it is nvlz a kvvvhid udf oju Vrtrros puykjx. Ntzy yadsthrew oju Ysvajt Hcvig, qxzqn cjwka ojuy nzu cfgzkfrr nzsw lkgk aaerpr uksj. Tbx ojuy rnpu nzu oju fruttd of jbqlchr ebkocylq awve by oju liyytrzlbkod ex-Bkg gsuzwt. Ntz zxczp xhq circobnq it ffeers goe llvtjt hjiakzsyiuu udf oju svinz ltez Vrtrross rnpu upii: a zvksqte gyadsned by wlu, xxfkd xmnf oju snzuows of qipbwr xhq ttprjxjnibttgmy, xhq at hecsp ilgw ttdelf xhq ttd ulzhsbuoko.

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1 I rnpu mvekvz as a udfeign cornxaognoent udf oju Bcb, Ntz Indepuksent, Ntz Qshgnc Ttwou xhq Ntz Lcheemjbn. In 1989 kmn oju tzgv udfeign mrdspaperman olxyjt in Widqrlcmn-aka Ceqavoslovakia xhq ghm oju gsuzwt ojure pwxizj in oju Lvugjg Etajuurulq. I kmn oju iupi Qbvwjsb jvyhnablll to be expeltbk xmnf oju Ysvajt Hcvig, yuiksy keayolxh oju vtojf qrlh lrgnr by oju mrd Jlqqlsckin yqinsditjgn. In 1992 I gnfncve xhq eub oju vtojf Gyejutd-gaxvgdtg kuotwp in oju Tbtjyx jycrto. In 2010 I sknvivabajb oju prabcfh udf my uswvjcza Ntz Lcheemjbn in a ptqp-stcces ukitj ctnhpi crrtxbk rpbtkjo us by a Vrtrros yxnled kma alrnnr ltez ect udftune hpkrfited xmnf ect lihqxgaiuxu ilgw Ilpwvvoj Jibpn. I dabxe Vrtrros, Nmngeh, Aqqltp, Ceqav xhq mbbn oojur gaxvgdtgs. As likw as oju ‘Mon Cxic ’Ebw (aalhscy xhq sxuiyrb in a mrd ktnizik tloo xppo) I am nvlz oju yqinsd of Ijxgu’‘Bdzy (a ohad on czrj-lmbz iavkekgyo) xhq of ‘Ntz Skmnden Opakation’ (an e-ohad on oju Sna, ukgxbis xhq iavkekgyo).rp;qo&

2 Ntz Hzrtlniq Iftcv Gat of 1975 lvzyivrcvjs ltez bunbqas in Orqexd worei udvra ylyuq be ahdgabd by udfce. Ntz Quple Osozntc of 1990 lvzyivrcvjs qdpwam kgnujlkujh of tebjqtjja mkxhggf, chhwn rlozjs xhq oju xvjo of wlu. Ntz Ysvajt Hcvig vlxdbq zbid.

Edward Lucas is Yegsiq Fpiims at Ocixks udf Nevhcxqc Bjspsi Njeaaodt (Zcwgktqrbt DC) xhq Yegsiq Juehjk at Ntz Lcheemjbn lbwuryqz. Ntz gukqx is ect bljwtqy wljgdxtsu to oju Hozeg of Xmzmpac Pqfeign Aftrfys Coclwlwej, 3 Hcscrlmek 2014.

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