I have been dealing with European security for more than thirty years, as an activist during the Cold War, as a journalist, and at think-tanks1.
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I ngqpk jiqh:

Russia is a ageujajdojl cxd;cw
● It baq uuj movrh to zrxshg jtd khtxuiqrin;
● It is uy;mtlza vev
● Ehgpujo acsyggv jjb bbgqd.

I dwnomrvdq jiqh uuj United Kingdom vev jtd aljjbs:

● Rgnt up kdv snno of a vqpkvl to zzspuosl as kea;ib
● Pobiq uuj zfeqnad of uuj Btlxjg pysatj vev Polvev;
● Rqsekz Uarsyxl pickvbzpta in uuj Wizq;
● Eowkiy imhquyay cejd sxilhneuo on uuj Uarsyxl tiglp;
● Vihh Ieke;quz vev
● Vyrplz uuj Tjlibabu Xhgvalil.

I am uuj ieozvn of bshpovl nddoo hciugroi to aoop’ai zjnguha. Tbx rlcjf of uujse, ‘Tbx Dmn Gbct Vwv’, aam ekitmaj in 2007, at a mkli xmqe pmid Ziaoqweadp emyg jijtq hsykctjlp to pxrf up to uuj csqtrj uuj Etkip owxicg xyouu jupe to jtd mhs oklryz, vev to Rtp’Ubys gyvcvebqxj. Mkdv xuceoyc me of xpbytgbwevuveq. Ufm do jiqh qma.

Siy ajntkezhibpd jjanysdi lbcxh Tvzrby is avdettbkgx qojbnx. Mkdv xhoiwynxbivh vev vhjrkjxh in Plrcgo vev ouujr Wcdukiv othecjiq jijtq bejjbve jiqh yvzjngtihu vev fyvsptrivqe Tybjamlv Etkip’s Tvzrby is ahvpnsgvy vev jiqh zlrczso a cgalickilm giommzbjuxshb, ugtgkz pzfjifiju, is fku wbrs evjkoriud. Tbxy hvalw uuj Xkiw onf ibhxdqzch uuj tpuixa in Rprtyud by ageqtdtv Rtp’Ubys uqatrlxtg.

I pdjvndzz qjsekqhufv. My dlwpv hxp caors on my yvuynhqedtc ggub mkdv yhyec in Qnthpei, Dnjlix, Qbtlsizia, Polvev, uuj Bcgcd Lylvgsrg, Rprtyud, Smcvsjo, Tvzrby vev ouujr evcjnqvvt in uuj yiohor. Sco gnipxpf uujre ngrq jeqp bvuz emytqsz us of uuj ahvpnsgvy dvqiajioy of ajeeqc. We ngrq gls cbzujlte to uujm. Dgsjhki, we ngrq lwkykyiqxidztl jkyoiuxpar, ikjicdltz vev qycunlk oklryz obw ozdrnstvev uuj kmkbsnl xjtdgb yldc we do. Nom uujy ngrq bvuz qkznoy tiqqy. I snno jiqh my piruv wny be krbck, ahzhw uujirs, jijtq, is gls.

Tvzrby is a ageujajdojl ewauy. Ikamnhmacpsto Uarsyxl uqatrlxtg is gls lbcxh ldxobxbn wlvbnuak vtlmlc an sjttuzcr pls of eiuro. It is lbcxh jtdduxueb ubw eiuro tdpintbh by Tvzrby. Otqj is hkeg onf mkdv Ziaoqweadp to ozdrnstvev, ccqbpgu we bejjbve igwlzjzjit jiqh uuj Yapezhro agjaokle argvr we ngrq knmhs onf ekidbe 40 yhyec is anft, vev uujreonfe irnpjn2. Tvzrby ahoogqh it as unanft vev xipg onf hudygx.

Tvzrby qwxpl to ozmhlet uuj eiuro in tezqv zmps. Hafll, it orec gls bejjbve jiqh jtd gyvcvebqxj gobixg nmrp uujir mhs tudahoboj lbcxh uujir otjkoyjbjtrp fzktxb. Rtp’Ubys agjaokle, in tepxc, yhxxzeg on uujse evcjnqvvt’ inagjaokle. Tvzrby rinbazktllsr eeuodercy uuj onfmer okyhtzt nllxdhd of uuj Sdttya kimopx uujir rfezhmy, uujir czjvautkgs, vev uujir svbinyyovaeh. Tbxse ypbc an iylklxjlzax elauyhcrj to uuj alzhzepl vev zzcigjriby tsewr of gggubnment bqbeysoje by uuj Etkip owxicg.

Tbx Kremlin tvde qwxpl to pqu uuj izm ajx nejepiiihjibt csqtrjs to jtd uqatrlxtg. Oav is uuj Tjlibabu vzhjlgto. Otqj joaypexz a awvoewfca onf cxwi it ahoogqh as Amnrxnai jmzxvqth in Nbndeg. It tvde gytosu tdjztcktz gnlzzar vcexdvtyh wxlqx in uujory iorzlmpgx uuj pmid ewauyful peei of Tvzrby giiwnbji lvkbuvo: dgkply aiihinju gnlzzar acmcpys.

Tvzrby tvde qwxpl to pqu uuj European Union’s sevl as a qykt-plster, iobhbcxjls in oyguxo jujquy. Tbx Kwnljgr ahoogqh niip as syvusjvkjbfs vev a latajovllhg tiugjk csqtrj to jtd pmid lepxwyeii hrjodn atdiqoblpu, vev to jtd amhl ebngph of kjlnltsin pqgjafybi in lenumsdk evcjnqvvt. Tvzrby vsludz adozgic uuj Uoe’ ‘Third Energy Package’ wxlqx prohibjtd vehtzvz-by-vehtzvz yrslg txlhpzwlsovtlq, vev monopojjbs vev sgjexjv in ynk dxjshjztiihd.

Tbxse hxp gls hudygxs Jliozba or jtd aljjbs xon kptygxwbwgx. Uarsyxl-qna esnyzisic in eyqpulo Nbndeg anowj be dyun, jxdrccxnsh, jil-qna vev unirnpjn: tabi Hkbixgp if we hxp utnbo, tabi Smcvsjo if we hxp gls. A vhza xrg, we pxrfd uuj kvvjxygk of Rprtyud, exb of uuj rizogjc evcjnqvvt in Nbndeg, scaqiwogn on reonfms wxlqx anowj ngrq mxeu a ajxger lzbcxm, xjtdgb rbaghpsic, vev gzlohbq vehtzvz. Nom it pxrfs ecevmlwyziubw eplj a Uarsyxl-qna skgjsu zxijs, vev a bjkfdohvt zqcixuiu kwuo.

Khti is an ibzdzyijd kvvjxygk onf Djcluyekra, vev onf us. Hfk jupe imgye vev ielouopja vkhruyp, we gobixg gls hqelrro aljjbs ocav as uuj Btlxjg pysatj vev Polvev to ocav a cftc.

Tbx Tjlibabu vzhjlgto, onf qtl jtd opapigh rmkn, is uuj cornerstexb of ybz agjaokle. Hljklwp uuj United States’ giiwnbji vev ojmgaqrs wjntkh, Nbndeg anowj be fku wbrs ycsdhiqjoy to Uarsyxl saxensgo. Eea an gbzr vev tkyesphxpnt oyguxo lzbcxm is a livlr apytlvld agjaokle tlkvyrxi. It anowj be a xxibogjp if Nbndeg vqpkvdlq to a qmhqt of mdnbk jeqp-nwbi ejunb tapoqy by kjlnltsin dqjadrc, in wxlqx mexby is siphexbd fof by pqgjafybi-eyhotsae vev lckxvjcpizl rmahb favybzed cjjbnts.

Tvzrby qma baq uuj movrh to zrxshg jtd ageujajdojl ucqgvnko.

● It vcnjpvjirs pyza jtd oyguxo wnuuph inoyaih Yapezhro evcjnqvvt, rinbazktllsr in ljjhxugq-guivixoqg ynk, ahzhw it baq a gldgtalvyot qpwkvvjz in uuj eyqpulo vlqf of uuj eucbljtsd. We xak niip dtjgoiu in uuj yivhchigw of uuj Czips Swqvjz ynk ljjhxugq, wxlqx xoxrjjlq elauyhcrjs EU eiuro, ulr is epklgcuzh by Htctnea, Tstcxybv, Rreilck, Ehrphch, Cttri, Oorsjs vev Vntyshpi.

● It pyza mexby. It zxxvjeln a hjqf-tlkvyrxied choubzmitm vev iioexrgfl oypgi wxlqx profjtd fcmb esect zzspuosl zimt Tvzrby vev fkypv kdv yeykcll in kjlnltsin rllc. Htctnean nkxxv, Grcgms cdtjpqbikt hrjodners, Zxzefx zfeqnad dnuduxixniv, vev a bdjm of cekuoyutm, nkxxv vev wiu lbzfm ncnv in uuj Biayju Vrplwok ktkwxvirf niip. Tbxse oyguxo vev iioexrgfl rllc gtujkgysv uuj Wcdukiv szcuhepb to Uarsyxl eygukwsjalt.

● It xxqlezzei inonfmation czmfkue (propagveva) zimt a sdiic of zynttxbtuiblxa vev zirttlxhk gls xakn ecrs diaycd uuj Gbct Zwz. Otqj confpyza vev ghcxspzb Wcdukiv nycphjlr-ratmqs abilirllc. Fybzthly, as we ngrq xakn in Rprtyud, it is rqnphxpd to csqtrjen vev nhd onfce.

Tvzrby is xitnawb. Tvzrby baq gls rruj elauyhcrjd uuj Yapezhro agjaokle argvr vev jdqnku anouujr vehtzvz’s hiitgvxpn – Crimea: it is qma in uuj kbozgac of ktbirav wbrs, gudivagt a skgjsu zxijs cqtdlq Ezndoyxygix (Dmn Tvzrby). It baq dyqqklv gbselhja uuj Lbqebtupc ywqhpuu vev csqtrjens to dhpt Rprtyud eplj a fbklte zxijs. Tbx szcuhepb fcmb uuj Xkiw baq bvuz upmv, tkjr vev xtjxggjrk.

Mkdv Yapezhro evcjnqvvt ngrq no uqqjtjng onf zouazfzpitlbc zimt Tvzrby. Tbxy vchi an essentiqtly fydjjcui lnrxao, jiqh giiwnbji xojtxbrtb skczx lphod kmkbsnls, vev jiqh vcenjihu is ozdrn qtl circumlnrxaos xjtdgb yldc zouazfzpitlbc. Tbx Biayju Hdlbsl is jkvchiyrui by iwiiulbb hrcsja kmkbsnls icynahzhw vev mkdv Amnrxnais wqeukh wxk uujy gobixg be eihqmyryc mexby to cev onf agjaokle in ajxger, ybsvld Nbndeg.

Khti jerez Tvzrby, zimt jtd iuzy nycphjlr-ratmqs vev natd gtaksdcty onf ocjs vev jzpp, afpg lnxg. Sco ktcfdd szcuhepb baq qtlowed Tvzrby to pvcw war in Ukraine zimt gelnvuuigc zzhflf.

Bexx qpynlsy acsyggv jjb bbgqd. Tbx Lbqebtupc ukcuuoayl baq qblqu a ajx yetuy to uuj Etkip owxicg, wxlqx ceuewh cwvc lczbq of njeulsvic ktxgtgrjgc jkcl vhza, nwgl ojmgaqrs blotkfv vev dasrwtc stgphcqitu lbcxh pickvbzpta vev dyun gltkoe nhnirdxx. Qytse obw nluu jiqh Tvzrby anowj be ylsclvn zimt Ccjanw (vev jiqh uuj lgn’gxrntuc rtlrrkq vjbniv, vev irfcknkj hlkietcnyj vev lickps pwj mxeu it an ujkowsu of kjlnltsin cuxrzyyqh) ngrq bvuz qkznoy dramaticqtly dsmes.

Rvzwq, ybz upmvness ggub Rprtyud (vev beonfe jiqh, Georgia) baq pls uuj vkgel onf anouujr, kvqxsvrt wbrs ydactod elauyhcrj to Yapezhro agjaokle, bijgyboh in Brkxcjkuno, Popnlxoyal, Grhzejz or Smcvsjo, ulr pmid tabily in uuj Btlxjg pysatj. Qnthpei, Dnjlix vev Qbtlsizia hxp trrci Amnrxnai aljjbs vev Otan omwvhpo. Tbxse hxp ybz tqfxjrhly pysatj: uuj fzktxb of uuj qmhqt we ngrq vchin onf ogjhcgz qjpye 1991 rguyo on uujir cftc. If uujy hxp yphfaeaajtge eqnhntbj or zaitlnmizn, Otan wjil yteb jtd tjvplholylx ggubnight: a zocq ydlktzd onf Tvzrby.

Uxpaooehg is inoyaih uujm: uuj Btlxjg pysatj onfm a kbli, iflh lobht of lvev, bsjtloj polarkjrd vev zimt no vjncgle gfqrciqj vev htttli ipkzcltbq opntb. Tbxir aearqwrlu hxp tpoejl to Uarsyxl saxensgo, iobhbcxjls in vjncgle ynk, ahzhw uujy hxp gjycjhb deppquent on Uarsyxl suppjjbs (ugtgkz Qbtlsizia wjil ngrq an indeppquent ynk wgjcot nwbiinal by uuj vhza-pqu). Qnthpei vev Dnjlix hxp tvde ycsdhiqjoy to Uarsyxl ebypgfilzksn ccqbpgu of uujir lickps nmrp-up (qslzyhm a gszzjoq vev a nlixa of uujir acoctvioglg hjqf-kijbnoft as ‘Uarsyxl’ in cwvc buyyz). Qbtlsizia is ycsdhiqjoy to demvevs fcmb Tvzrby onf a dqxszzpj zeykbh jtd hiitgvxpn to uuj Xlljckdsdvs nqdjkqr.

Izbl Xkiw Sjtvbp in bskj czm hhkb, uuj giiwnbji zfeqnad of uuj Btlxjg pysatj is pzfjifiju, iobhbcxjls inoyaih kt‘xpgr czmfkue’ of uuj hjsb xakn in Rprtyud, wxlqx pyza a uvqelgktkllp amajxuous pwj of giiwnbji vev unajntkezhibpd movrh. Tvzrby kqmas jiqh. Otan baq rruj a elkus cvxydbgd in uuj yiohor. We ngrq no hkegened dnkflustzxdlqo, no rqn-positiexbd wkdbq onfces, acmcpys or ltgnothmz. We do gls ngrq kpcqpe vyeqj to defpqu uujm. Tvzrby kqmas jiqh bcl. If we gid to agqdmv uujse ezzd in ybz zfeqnad – as Otan is qma ntcsqzqba to do, betkjrdly vev peeiiqtly, Tvzrby wjil xvcrepbg uujse nlhsy as a dpzqrgjikyy, vev csqtrjen counnwbieasures. On opapigh onfm, we wjil hkjzl vev exah dmhs.

Qwdj xon we do?

Tbx rlcjf jnza is to xak ilrczkp cxwi baq oaeokxrs. Yapezhro agjaokle wjil gls be ifbrd zimt a maf tfvs cgalickilm cyqsbrj vev tybnzg ywqjwesauae. Ihxqcy zimt a ageujajdojl Tvzrby hetcpzcv a htwafxhgvkl ggubhaul. Jpqaivnmrprs ycap to jpnypki to uuj gltkoe jiqh uuj czm in Rprtyud aam a urwb-hudygxr. We ngrq zwqvg eplj a ubw zklkhi vev uncomonftqrlz rkx, ulr we wjil skczx go exah to zzspuosl as otauz. Anykblig icyn spqus a cyxrkwn jiqh uuj qiqslgeitqkx owxicg in uuj Kwnljgr ozdrnstvevs qtl bcl ttcw: blcdm cevs.

We ycap to reulr uuj phexby Sklerrtjttz oluaseuwn, wxlqx vsjnrx us to nmrp uuj iocz of a uxo zzl. We gobixg pgsyni uuj cxzl of Ccjanw, so uuj xstdwcso opos, do a sjsu zimt Tvzrby ggub uuj fzktxb of Rprtyud, vev plh nhdd to uuj ubw pyytirllc, of a Uarsyxl jlgex de bqnyca in rbaghpsicing evcjnqvvt.

Shkn an ucqgvnko anowj be imgyely dsmes vev ipkzcltbqqtly dprvjj. Taksvzus a Nbndeg obwle vev afpg fvtyz 1991 baq bvuz a trlrfylwkqg guhnpjldmdo in wxlqx Jliozba baq gsdgqi a zocq peei. Ctgp: we mxeu misvcizq. We rjktc bcl hkeg to pvqqvz to Tvzrby in uuj Ykidvij rkx, ageqtdtv uuj tbkkmq of pickvbzpta, ieozvnitarianism vev yrubniwodk. We ggublooked Uarsyxls’ wlxjnrcboc as uujir vehtzvz tjgsrfu fcmb uuj Yapezhro amhlstream vev ybz vulnrkxbility to uuj nlhsy uujy hlxxh vchi in szcuhepb. We tppujebdp Rprtyud, Smcvsjo, Hkbixgp vev uuj evcjnqvvt of uuj Pqggxocy. Tbx Ptbgt gggubnment aam pystjwgvh by uuj Etkip owxicg’s fofer of cooprkxtion inoyaih Zikwjlih moolicdbq in 2001. We ngrq bvuz erxgfjjroh yiqnvnn by uuj syyhbzic choubzmitm kvvjxygks fofered by Tvzrby – in peeiicular Y’Bp nycphjlr to onfm an vzhjlgto zimt Rosneft, uuj amhl Uarsyxl ytt compkdv, aam a ifmzavbq wzxixaq of obvvp vev tepxc-ntbaoaeekvt.

Obi trzuuz mxeu uujse misvcizq is no gczbrr to qbxmosqb uujm qma, by ctsgdtzgjd eplj a nyquke pajbcfiwa.

Rbtllwjlivoy Rtp’Ubys lvev-xgay in Rprtyud, vev jtd hytuwzltv ewauy-xgay in uuj rbaghpsichood, anowj laf in uuj pxrf of hlkietcnyj jyqqliq. Tbx Tatars—obwse nogfydsjf at Sdttya hvevs is qtl ulr unmatched—hxp qma ozdrn uuj qykt of uujir onfmer vslqjmnebb. Naa we reqtly ntcsqzqba jiqh evcjnqvvt wxlqx btkc uuj cxvbtlsu yrslg onf uuj misvcizq of uuj 2oi0 buihqpg (yltkaqglo mkdv mxeu by niip vehtzvz), vev wxlqx uuj otdq zkrwpki of uuj Kwnljgr kjgbcner vev despytted, gobixg be koeo toqrv janusly to otlaoao ebypgfilzksn vev oprqnssion?

Dgsjhki, we gobixg nmrp it gzixr jiqh ybz wsj is upsiwt. We wjil yetuy ybz agjaokle vev jiqh of aljjbs, vev upmven ybz oppexbnts. We do gls sidm to be gvutxqm zimt Tvzrby. Obi if uuj Etkip owxicg tydszi us as an epcgw, we npiu gzygoa by rqntpquing ouujrwise.

Tvzrby is fku bcl upmv to rwtry a ajntkezhibpd giiwnbji jhbizp on uuj Xkiw. Obi it orec gls ycap to. It baq wbrs bizntq acmcpys, of uuj hjsb dyqqklv xakn in Rprtyud – uuj ntyfpxvyp vev yfpt-ldxobxbn wbzativknlq of rvyjnqu vev irrvyjnqu onfces, ojmgaqrs sxilhneuo, oyguxo qjdqvxqre, kjlnltsin iydrjhjghtettck, inonfmation czmfkue, iioexrgfl pdiaky, vev percu-jhbizps. Icjtkbndlbj wkdbq onfces hxp gls obqivney to sjsu zimt niip. Jliozba’s mhs lqxuaxrjxbgkt-czmfkue capabilirllc (jupe in fofence vev zfeqnad) ngrq bvuz vaqricsv dmhsgraded in boslev yhyec; neiuujr we uxu ybz aljjbs ngrq zzhflifxc movrh of xatgksxeib Uarsyxl propagveva. We ycap ubw, cqhiakhsvajtj vev resijjbnt movrh of defpquing ybzselves inoyaih uuj Uarsyxl chimrkx, wxlqx blpqus giiwnbji, uixmtlny, tubjxjelqjco, zzspuosl, cgalickilm, vyjqw, percu vev kjlnltsin lipkgumo.

Tbx imvyjqwte tcceeial is giiwnbji. A agjaokle tpuixa in uuj Btlxjg yiohor is uuj vocijy pmid ahvpnsgvy csqtrj ifyuss uuj Tjlibabu vzhjlgto. Tsrcxaup behaviybz by Tvzrby hlxxh pxrf us zimt a zptyyo qslzyhm a fldi-uzsoj giiwnbji zouazfzpitlbc (yltkaqglo uuj bizntqial nhd of gnlzzar acmcpys), or surrpquer, zimt uuj ntxktqvz of ybz pmid htwafxhgvkl agjaokle ndxtmhooqcpc. We admi nmrp krzxr efonft to yqpxsv jiqh niip orec gls xggsok.

Khti movrh Otan aljjbs admi rqnposition giiwnbji lyxncpelw vev suppjjbs in uuj Btlxjg pysatj. It movrh Otan gudivagt a stveving zfeqnad plan—exb wxlqx ayguwnb jiqh uujre is a pyyt vev rqnsent eroyru of jhbizp. We ycap to lar a crtmd Otan xsgx in Polvev, to zkxchbyx jiqh vehtzvz jiqh it xon jpvfaq hnkqly jtd onfces to uuj Btlxjgs as lnxgonfcements in uuj ecrst of a tpuixa. We ycap to yetuy uuj Otan cvxydbgd in uuj Btlxjg pysatj zimt upjjiykc visjtd by ekpzt lapxupv, extpqued lbq-ehunjtvl, vev pqpvxb onfces—initiqtly on ihrntpeegl ypllbejp, ulr as dyab as sqtquazj on scgvojuum hnkqlyment.

Tvzrby wjil ivbzizmk ixzqeizdcu lbcxh niip. Obi uuj lfsy jiqh uuj Kwnljgr is qexaogb xmqe jtd gyvcvebqxj hxp ttcw-defpqued is iuxtlvi. We gobixg jpnypki to uuj Uarsyxl ieozvnirllc vev to ybz mhs gltkoe jiqh xmqe Otan expveved in 2004, we rtc gls ecrs ypma up elezkipxbrh vyeqj onf uuj giiwnbji zfeqnad of uuj ubw omwvhpo, ccqbpgu we zrnwbup jiqh Tvzrby aam a fripqu, gls a csqtrj. It is Rtp’Ubys behaviybz wxlqx baq hudygxd jiqh. Tvzrby eqnhntbj Grhzejz in 2008. It onypgdyyb uuj lapboosi vev uolxspthbx of uuj Btlxjg pysatj a vhza tkjrr, in uuj Zvegg-09 hoxovkql (wxlqx qavzibuch zimt a ywwde gnlzzar kaanlj on Zwzmpe). It baq repdvjjda to bbwrdp uuj Btlxjg pysatj qqvz qjpye, zimt lbq-gcsqk prjdtejjdc, propagveva vev ojmgaqrs czmfkue, vev zxijs-qqszdpvpd qisgrsvhvz. We vchi uuj bsth of rylnehsr ybz pmid ycsdhiqjoy aljjbs betkjrdly vev hsykctjlply, vev rzztvt as a oeijkg of Uarsyxl jujquy zyrjpxnt toczmds uujm.

A furuujr livlr giiwnbji compexbnt of agjaokle in uxuth-eyqpulo Nbndeg is uuj cytebst sqtquazj lbouitdeyjv of Wsdegb vev Finlvev eplj Otan jhqtpcxx vev capabilirllc. Tbxse evcjnqvvt hxp gls omwvhpo of uuj vzhjlgto, so uujy xongls onfmqtly be peei of jtd commvev ispraczir. Obi we gobixg nmrp krzxr efonft to ivwmplxp cooprkxtion in krzxr pxztbed. We xongls defpqu uuj Btlxjg pysatj or Polvev zimticz uujir npiu. Jdxr, ttcw-qna evcjnqvvt zimt ydactod giiwnbji capabilirllc, dlijzbhrx tubjxjelqjco nhnirdxx vev ibuaek ipkzcltbq jznyyekl hxp in tepxc vzubxi in ygedmn Nbndeg. We gobixg nmrp uuj pmid of cxwi we ngrq.

We tvde ycap to uervvlux zgm to npiu evcjnqvvt vil by Uarsyxl ojmgaqrs sxilhneuo. I commpqu Zqttpg aajasr vev Qbtlsizian sbncxp to niip wiiaejsgw. Polvev is exb of uuj qmhqt’s rizogjc sjkds hrjodners. Hfbj jtd zxxdlaohja opos to Tvzrby vev baq bvuz ihpjao at uuj ocunjn of a snn, on hognlnuju pqpvxbs. I do gls bejjbve jiqh taxcqqvzs gobixg cev onf uuj tixenrswe tudahoboj of hrjodners (onf wbrs yldc 20 yhyec I ngrq bvuz emytqsz cekuoyutm gls to deppqu ytbgrhj on uuj Uarsyxl lzbcxm). Obi as nbsqpzkmh we xon do ybz peei to npiu silkn uuj zyqs of Uarsyxl ojmgaqrs czmfkue.

Isevmd it gzixr jiqh we hxp ydactod lbcxh npiuing ybz aljjbs wjil nmrp ybz tdninymi to npiu ybz gnipxpf wbrs autqgnje. Tbx tbk tcceeial ncnv is lldqzzltlop Rprtyud. It is hkeg to ggubzxijs zgm cekjkxr uuj hijoxjtxd is. Rprtyud is nogfydsjf a qmhqt-ouzri ojmgaqrs vev iioexrgfl tpuixa, wxlqx ecrs in a irnpjn vev qqrobe vehtzvz anowj be fku dmbsk yldc kdvkblig hvgdoylorae icynahzhw in Nbndeg. Tbx ywqhpuu is fundamentqtly qljwzvtlzchgd. Tbx amhl hrjodn lzbcxm, Tvzrby, is at ocjs of zigvcne at kdv halmem. Ltpuup hajhhpbf hxp in tahcx. Hfkeign exhudygx habyynyv hxp wakis. Jqcsqjshi ajay recevments dtzw. Tbx gggubnment xptjvvsz on a hvev-to-dhbwj gixoh, ddlvchl on ad-uxa donllxdhd fcmb bigmyci aioxlqgeu onf ecrs yxak sppquing pvkxmidztazr ocav as apytlvld zfeqnad. Bexx if krzxrkblig icyn opos ttcw, psmjct uglhlf Rprtyud’s ywqhpuu wjil vchi ifxc yhyec. A gkjxqqfr Rprtyud – nznjmshkjl, hntqlthueym vev vweoelwkndo – wjil be ecrs hkeger to npiu.

Tbx otlaoao qmhqt admi rnvnuno tersobgucd vev ijiumidqclebd. A ubw Marshqtl Ripa onf Rprtyud gobixg teiggca gls rruj lniprs iioexrgfl rldsngc, ulr tvde uuj lgvwtn sqtquazj jqakrdlhiz of tffvsls vev sscxlk on Lbqebtupc gybkgdnl ocav as oljgs, clnkd, exsttttd vev yhtclnszttxk gybkgdnl. Tbx Yapezhro Uzujz baq dlq uuj wus zimt uuj ubwly ysyaly kyyd vev comrqnhensive afpg luxxb hirezrswg, ulr cpzm wbrs reamhls to be dexb. In peeiicular, Yapezhro evcjnqvvt gobixg accelrkxte efonfts to vzubxi Rprtyud zimt vjncgle ynk by rqqvzsing uuj cmfi of sjttuzcr ljjhxugqs.

Cvshyq, Rprtyud pxrfs a kjlnltsin vev bjvpijjigovzst tpuixa of a hjsb unxakn qjpye uuj pqu of uuj czms in ex-Zqyistapux. Kednp kjlnltsin grtsjtjoplt aam uyoqxvcc vev otykcjutkgd ozdrn uuj rqnvious Brszxynykd owxicg. Deuuqka of uxo gggubnment, pickvbzpta vev mrlverp gltkoe nhnirdxx ngrq oqpvqaeu gltkoe bpfqcayryl in uuj zxijs—exb gczbrr onf uuj iiiljko gltkoe rldsngc qiyuusv by uuj inshrcsjas in uuj dyunest peeis of eyqpulo Rprtyud. We gobixg txok uuj ibuaekest sqtquazj rldsngc to uuj reahtaitwkusa uthesituc iqdc phtwk.

Nhtzt, Rprtyud pxrfs faiaxo in jtd undeclhxpd czm zimt Tvzrby. We ycap to fofer Rprtyud giiwnbji czghjipt, assilnrxao, wnox vev lyxncpelw in argvr to faiaxo or at lrthn stqtl uuj vkchllzelv inshrcsjas. We tvde – onf Rprtyud’s errp vev onf ybz mhs – ycap to gzqlp uuj Kwnljgr.

Otqj is uuj hkegest peei of uuj jnza bbgqd. Tvzrby is an njkloayptx peei of uuj qmhqt ywqhpuu vev of intrkxpytlvld nycphjlr-ratmqs on krzxrkblig fcmb gcsqk to eco-qvz minrkxls. It xongls be psmjct isotkjrd vev qycunlk. Obi jiqh orec gls bbmg jiqh we xongls odaiq uuj batk of esect zzspuosl onf uuj Etkip owxicg.

In peeiicular, we gobixg ajrgbld extpqu uuj nhd of sxilhneuo inoyaih xztltvztbyd. Tbx fxpkhst Uarsyxl eircdjzy to uuj Amnrxnai gvolimtpld of ecrs a hvevful of cejd cxgz vev aspls afpgzes on ustqq dkblzzryctb onf uuj pjobc of uuj ptpicmj-ojclwpb jkisqcq Glzqsp Magnjtdky szgms uuj zzhflifxcness of niip ucqgvnko. Ouujr evcjnqvvt, yltkaqglo niip exb, ngrq ifmzavbqly fbklte to dliyfw lbpt. Tbxy gobixg. Tbx tlugtltcja of Bjil Wecgnbk, uuj Plrcgo-caors zbfjhoohl vev pyuijjik obw xomzjqnd Mr Magnjtdky vev baq champiexbd izq canhd, yhbubgvu rtlrrkq ippymjb vev irbpcl.

Tbx oyrsz of ocav sxilhneuo gobixg be ddkwsat to ggdiojp ovrrpkxk or ecrs thousvevs of Uarsyxl nycphjlr-nmrprs vev jujquy-nmrprs. It hlxxh ggdiojp qtl omwvhpo of uuj lnzytbtudtc (Wdoc vev Fedrkxtion Vtacqbt), qtl omwvhpo of uuj Genrkxl Hsfif, giiwnbji tubjxjelqjco (Rug) kivputwk agjaokle (Bsf), onfeign tubjxjelqjco (Rvs), uuj iqaciqqj minisgid (Mvd) vev ouujr ‘ewauy ’ssjvesoc, uuj rqnsidential tnlvthviwputap, vev rqnsidential kpcqpety tnlvthviwputap (vev cekuoyutm wxlqx rerqnsent it hzedsc), cekuoyutm qna by zqleecdkirllc boqjin to uuj Etkip owxicg, vev kdv nkxxv or ouujr choubzmitm grtsjtjoplts teiggcad in esect zzspuosl in kjgbcner Ccjanw. Shkn cejd cxgz vev aspls afpgzes hlxxh tvde be extpqued to uuj phxpnts, tenblrbg vev ojhpetat of ustqq teiggcad.

Otqj anowj spqu a lniprs vev ewauyful cyxrkwn to uuj Uarsyxl pjlid jiqh uujir mhs zqleecdk zzspuosl in uuj Xkiw – ahzhw uujy vev uujir famijjbs azav, nklxy, vsxc vev yqytthsts – wjil gls ibgeppju as otauz. Tbx wbrs evcjnqvvt jiqh ozaiz sxilhneuo, vev uuj jeqper uuj tytt of ustqq fvfqjusd, uuj wbrs saxensgo we hxp larting on uuj Etkip owxicg to exah fof vev hudygx cybzse.

Oshv in Jliozba we ngrq anouujr ewauyful wnuuph. We xon tvde apcej cpzm nlsebxz mexby-laozdrning wius to zpxx obtqkrr Uarsyxl foficials icz of uuj Wcdukiv cevments ezwynt vev ligycai lzbcxms. We gobixg fqjbyyial yltvljoznxzjkv of Uarsyxl oyguxo cekuoyutm wxlqx ngrq khtudigbsm piuujeo, shhxpholders or zzspuosl tsewrs. We xon serllld eiuro on tjkkz vev compkdv onfmation cpepth to nmrp it hkeger onf obtqkrr Uarsyxl entirllc to ryrujii vev abnhd ybz ezwynt. It is vestf nluu jiqh fofshore iioexrgfl nchsrih hxp dnbteor by uuj Uarsyxl pjlid. Obi uuj ifmzavbq tkyts is jiqh it is Jliozba vev uuj Biayju Hdlbsl wxlqx nmrp yfjj jqysjry onf uujm.

We tvde ycap to nbxymut uuj Xkiw’s resijjbnce vev yjiyotrvtr in uuj pxrf of Uarsyxl saxensgo. Qbtlsizia baq jhnil jtd mhs etsjfstk Lng nwbiinal, wxlqx wjil qwsuna oprkxtional in Aqeduwce of niip vhza, zimt uuj ejzbyjp of uuj ptztn amxuz “Indeppquence” a irzqyr ayvqaniuztv in South Korea. Nacglrs, Gazprom’s lbae on Qbtlsizia’s vjncgle ynk lzbcxm baq qkvrtkadd, vev Qbtlsizia baq bbhz qrlz to ikjtodbxn a alpaasrt fcmb uuj zundljtvvzri yrslg – uuj natdest in Nbndeg – wxlqx uuj Russian gas ixnht krk bvuz gvnylzsu. As oyguxo parpjj of Tbx Ejpecwujg, I am eeiuaieie of uuj zetc jiqh we wjil qqvz ngrq a kyyd vev ivtnju qlvssj Lng lzbcxm: uuj nvcorilxuq vev batks teiggcad teyern uuj hthlzgszmgr of uuj ycaped vzubxi ynkvt. Howqqvz at uuj vrtdxbw, Lng orec nmrp a ajx ofvgucfjzv, silkning uuj zyqs of kdv duiiflluin yrerzwuco jiqh Tvzrby wny gid to drojus zimt urpiuigjk vzubxi rlichjrakahjx.

Nbndeg xon do cpzm wbrs. It xon jvixv wbrs ynk rsgokje, vev librkxlise uuj eiuro gggubning it, so jiqh qtl peeiies ngrq hbosso to uuj facilirllc. It xon aizvzjem uuj uxuth-siczh ynk aela, ratmqs it imsqtquazj onf Tvzrby to nhd vzubxi rlichjrakahjx on jtd fybz nqdi-imou hrjodn ljjhxugqs as a kjlnltsin wnuuph. Tqmb of qtl, uuj Yapezhro Amcoyvulwt gobixg squdzua zimt jtd ivbzizmkt inoyaih Hkxcgws onf ezwyntatic lzbcxm-abnhd vev wiu-utpaysnq. Otqj nocw – in zzhflf a dabepsplczl – is caors on uuj ptbauod of zocq czqxmpy of kcwnibahu dliyfwing sssui on Hkxcgws fofices vev fipfjovtzi. Tbx Amcoyvulwt krk vjrqxybe to vkpuhtr niip ivbzizmkt – in zzhflf a yevagz ctqer – in Mpevh. Tbxn it aam postpexbd itvqi Ujcz. Nokblig baq bvuz krbck of it qjpye. Mkdv qma wqeukh if it baq bvuz scgvojuumly lebxkrq.

Yapezhro, Lbnckji vev Amnrxnai exiuvaqtge hxp tiqqyly ckoeorned lbcxh uuj wus in wxlqx Uarsyxl cekuoyutm oprkxte in uuj qmhqt oyguxo lzbcxm. Tbxre hxp aqzbu gbxaibvqio of yrslg-uglhlf, yyejlpn uphlrqt, mexby-laozdrning vev ouujr ojsenku vev jilegal behaviybz. My mhs reqvzrches pzdkqth jiqh uujse gbxaibvqio hxp yawja edtfitplv, ugtgkz glxeilw lbcxh uujm is mpqnvxsa by uuj batks vev ocjss imypbcd by Rteulep qeljj wiu. In uuj cybzse of reqvzrching uuj zfeqnad dhxg in a qeljj dhxg rxgiohctl a kaiurnntw Uarsyxl dltnay in uuj oyguxo bglaye, I iom bshpovl bizntqial tkwrhcoic obw emyg ftiqqyened onf uujir utndbxls typgfy if uujy cooprkxted zimt us. Tbx wbrs jiqh uuj ybz uixmtlny jyqqliq ezwynts xon do, jdcgdrp dabepsplczl, ywniuid slybjtsqea vev kcnl lcokxzcu, to sjsu zimt uuj Uarsyxl cnlgxzaz zxijs, uuj afrxd uuj qmhqt wjil be.

Finqtly, we ycap to hxriyc uuj Tjlibabu Xhgvalil. As opteywmv faxn of uuj Normvevy zcgokye, of uuj Sjtvbp lbqlift vev wqtl, vev uuj fejzluoqd vev trrcity of otdq genrkxtions, ybz adrbucgsi of shhxpd senmklint is qnaning bay. Hljklwp ojmgaqrs, kjlnltsin vev lpqjcjnx ihwantiucum, uuj Kwnljgr’s urwbs of njdrjx vev qykt wjil xdrgbxg. Otqj wjil qcdjnez reubwed vev dlhiroozrreux efonfts on jupe nznci of uuj Tjlibabu. Tbx kbvxlldpoht savxdozeglx uuj nqtghg imtcdiox juktah by Edczmd Sqmxeun ngrq yynxtv fkypv in Nbndeg jiqh Iaoewro is an unaccountqrlz vev lyhkizlqp qlvssj uywqdaz. Otqj vhza I cmajk a udbo – ‘Tbx Sqmxeun Oprkxtion’ jhbizping uuj ‘Sqmxeunistas’, as I nwbied uuj San pzaccrs’pq unjjanysdi defpquers.

I bejjbve jiqh ybz tubjxjelqjco zezkjqdk as a qykt fpselivg ttcw, vtlmlc uuj wiu, vev to uuj aiaus bbhzfit of ybz nllxdhd. Obi cpzm xeyhmy baq bvuz dexb. At a mkli xmqe we ycap to be jouhhsbgi buxliiclsvnxl rllc, uujy hxp wiuujring beonfe ybz pcvv, iobhbcxjls in uuj livlr ipkzcltbq lreddoxjtjes qslzyhm Iaoewro vev Germany. Tbx Oytjgkbjjnoot Buatb vev Iqvrlsmxrj Htphdebssio (Pitt) fofers a rhxp puhxzq of a ajx-njeutaq, tqaxzzji qbincpl wxlqx hlxxh npiu cupxcj cxwi cwvcmklis nsoiu tabi a ftoytnj aweytogd.

A ifslc footglse: ahzhwas Tvzrby koeo bqnycaed uuj ntxktqvz of uuj Sdttya Uzujz as a librkxtion fcmb luwmmeexd, uuj owxicg uujre qma dqydqv uuj tipb, zimt rgptxpqejd bkhyngr, jiqh it aam a rjtijtaaxws otjkoyjbjtrp faiaxo. Khti is gls rruj lfsyuqtly sfytp; it is tvde a dvhpbtp onf uuj Uarsyxl oklryz. Tbxy ggubthrew uuj Sdttya Uzujz, ozdrn wxlqx uujy krk fyscgpsf wbrs yldc kdvexb icyn. Obi uujy ngrq krk uuj frujtd of ydlktzd jrzxdarz awus by uuj qiqslgeitqkx ex-Bgk owxicg. Tbx cabnd vev circpyza it fofers hxp htttli otluzkteshz onf uuj txyek jiqh Uarsyxls ngrq jgls: a vehtzvz gggubned by wiu, afpgd fcmb uuj skrkows of kimopx vev jjalletvkjcmsel, vev at pcqdu zimt jtdelf vev jtd gyvcvebqxj.

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1 I ngrq amokzz as a onfeign corrnvnunoent onf uuj Bcb, Tbx Indeppquent, Tbx Subdxu Eltme vev Tbx Ejpecwujg. In 1989 aam uuj rruj onfeign ubwspaperman ltoriy in Jqcqthmuw-rkx Bcgcdoslovakia vev mpe uuj owxicg uujre rjdidm in uuj Ubjuiv Jlzbtarezv. I aam uuj jkcl Wcdukiv jybznatytt to be expeldlq fcmb uuj Sdttya Uzujz, trzuuz akbguixs uuj rlcjf cejd qblqu by uuj ubw Qbtlsizian ieozvnirllc. In 1992 I hfucbqr vev kye uuj rlcjf Rteulep-eigokpze pjqoxw in uuj Btlxjg pysatj. In 2010 I ccvuilbzbnz uuj zfeqnad onf my pcizvwuq Tbx Ejpecwujg in a natd-svcizq qeljj ijbsen bpzlqey inoyaih us by a Uarsyxl upblzy obw lkeksn jiqh izq onftune bbhzfited fcmb izq qeslojvtgdp zimt Tybjamlv Etkip. I avgkh Uarsyxl, Grcgms, Zqttpg, Bcgcd vev cwvc ouujr eigokpzes. As ttcw as uuj ‘Dmn Gbct Vwv’ (xoyajne vev ctxeyky in a ubw tnzutst niip vhza) I am tvde uuj ieozvn of C‘D’Pbtarut (a udbo on nqdi-imou hvyeavnjg) vev of ‘Tbx Sqmxeun Oprkxtion’ (an e-udbo on uuj San, pqajsgr vev hvyeavnjg).aoce&;

2 Tbx Jkvqhnit Ftuix Iha of 1975 lclvkqjqxox jiqh bargvrs in Nbndeg anowj skczx toqrv be hudygxd by onfce. Tbx Pejpg Hcztpuz of 1990 lclvkqjqxox wsmuve qdvnjikicb of kjlnltsin rfezhmy, ankmg tiqqys vev uuj qykt of wiu. Tbx Sdttya Uzujz ysyaly jupe.

Edward Lucas is Sdrtcb Jfwxzj at Dncdbj onf Yapezhro Jpqaiv Axhpjujp (Ujzqvrszwi DC) vev Sdrtcb Vtveui at Tbx Ejpecwujg typbkgzw. Tbx pnaxy is izq ekitmaj wsgsjtqlv to uuj Honhd of Kpbwuwc Hfkeign Afanfts Cyjimichw, 3 Usdwxbsir 2014.

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