“With fighting ongoing in Ukraine, it is difficult to expect Russia to reshuffle its priorities and start concentrating forces in other directions,” the Ministry of National Defence of Lithuania commented the Bild article to ELTA.
Nonetheless, the ministry noted that Russia is planning a long-term increase of forces on the strategic Western direction.
“Infrastructure and unit development plans have been foreseen, structural and subordination changes are happening,” the ministry said based on the assessment of the Second Investigation Department (AOTD), its intelligence and counterintelligence branch.
The ministry noted that the national threat assessment conducted by the AOTD last year has changed little.
“Russia is maintaining significant capabilities and constantly replenishing them at the frontline in Ukraine. Not losing the war is the priority for Russia currently and it is devoting respective resources for that,” the ministry stated.
A confidential document drafted by the German Defence Ministry outlines how Russia’s confrontation with NATO could start in the Baltics. Escalation would begin in February 2024 by Russia launching another mobilisation and in spring 2024 if Western support for Ukraine weakens, and Russia starts a successful offensive in Ukraine.
Based on the discussed scenario, Russia launches cyberattacks in summer, while in October 2024 it moves forces and missiles to Kaliningrad, followed by a “border conflict” in the Suwalki Gap. After the 2024 presidential election, Russia invades NATO territory with Belarusian support. Thirty days later NATO, including Germany, would deploy numerous military forces to the eastern flank and a major confrontation between NATO and Russia would occur in 2025.
