aA
The Lithuanian central bank forecasts that the economy may contract between 3.4 and 20.8 percent this year, depending on how long the nationwide quarantine remains in place.
Central bank: economy may contract 3-21 pct this year
© Haroldas Arelis

The Bank of Lithuania on Thursday upgraded its forecasts based on three economic development scenarios.

"In a U‑shaped scenario, which is the baseline one, we project an economic contraction of over 10 percent, at 11.4 percent," said Vitas Vasiliauskas, the central bank governor.

"If the impact is abrupt and the quarantine lasts two months (...) until mid-May, the rate of contraction would be between 3 and 4 percent," he said. "In case of a protracted U-shaped recession (a four-month quarantine period), it would be around 21 percent."

"The scenario presented on March 16 was really an optimistic one, and we are not speaking about it now. I would like to remind you that the we spoke about possible economic contraction of 1.2 percent for this year," Vasiliauskas said.

The Bank of Lithuanis says the coronavirus outbreak will hit Lithuania’s economy with its hardest punch in the second and third quarters of 2020. However, if the spread of the virus is properly contained and economic stabilization measures are put in place, economic growth could be back on track already in 2021.

Under the baseline scenario, Lithuania's GDP is expected to grow 9.7 percent in 2021.

Under the first U scenario, Lithuania's exports will drop 13.4 percent, as much as it did during the 2009 crisis, and should grow 15.1 percent next year.

Under the V form scenario, exports volumes would drop 4.7 percent this year.

Unemployment should rise to 9-16 percent, depending on the scenario, this year, and should stand at 6.9-9.8 percent next year. It stood at 6.3 percent last year.

The Bank of Lithuania estimates that wages will grow 2.4 percent under the best-case scenario but will probably contract 2.6 percent, or as much as 12.2 percent under the worst-case scenario. Next year, it would grow 3.6 and 2 percent or contract 2.5 percent respectively. Wages grew 8.8 percent last year.

BNS
Naujienų agentūros BNS informaciją skelbti, cituoti ar kitaip atgaminti visuomenės informavimo priemonėse bei interneto tinklalapiuose be raštiško UAB "BNS" sutikimo neleidžiama.
|Populiariausi straipsniai ir video

Lithuania's Devold says could make 100,000 medical coveralls by late summer

Norwegian-owned Lithuanian textile manufacturer Devold says it could producer around 100,000...

Tax revenue 15 percent short of target in March

The Lithuanian central government's tax revenue fell around 15 percent short of the target in March,...

Avia Solutions Group bought Bluebird Nordic

On the 24th of January 2020, Avia Solutions Group signed an agreement with BB Holding EHF for the...

GetJet Airlines set to lay off 370 employees

Lithuania's wet-lease and charter services provider GetJet Airlines has given lay-off notices to 370...

Avalanche of ideas developed in 'Hack the Crisis' hackathon

One of the most important tasks for hackathon organizers was to identify the most pressing issues,...

Top news

President signs into law tougher penalties for breaking quarantine rules

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has signed into law a legislative package introducing tougher...

811 coronavirus cases in Lithuania

On Sunday morning, there were 811 COVID-19 cases in Lithuania. 10 deaths related to the novel...

Lithuania's Devold says could make 100,000 medical coveralls by late summer

Norwegian-owned Lithuanian textile manufacturer Devold says it could producer around 100,000...

10th coronavirus death reported

Another patient infected with COVID-19 died in Lithuania on Saturday, bringing the country's death...

Lithuania no longer allows cars from Russia, Belarus to enter

A ban for passenger cars to enter Lithuania from Belarus and Russia have come into force on...

|Maža didelių žinių kaina