"I think that the Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis is waiting for his supporters in the Parliament Farmer group will unify, gain strength, and then it will form a new coalition with the Social Democrats and the Conservatives. As far as I know, S. Skvernelis struggling to communicate with the liberals. I would like to emphasize that these are my personal insights "- in considering the current political situation in the country, said political scientist Lauras Bielinis said to the LRT.lt.
Is the current Social Democratic and Peasant 'ruling coalition doomed to fail? Does the future depend on who the party chairman elections from the beginning of May will led the Social Democrats? Can the reigning Farmers remain in Parliament a united and their faction shattered by S. Skvernelis and Ramūnas Karbauskis supporters? These questions posed by LRT.lt to the interviewed politicians and political scientists talking about the future of the ruling coalition.
Social Democrat situation - very convenient?
Candidates for the post of President of the Social Democrats- Vilnius Mayor Gintautas Paluckas and Minister of Economy Mindaugas Sinkevičius - repeatedly hinted that the current ruling coalition agreement it is not very satisfactory.
In response to such talks, S. Skvernelis this week said that before making conclusions of a new coalition agreement, the current contract should be terminated. It does not happen in such a way that in the case of withdrawal of the coalition agreement, the Prime Minister would take the Parliaments Farmers groups and their supporters to form a new coalition with the Conservatives – without the Social Democrats?
"When commenting the approach of the Social Democratic Party candidate for President to the current coalition agreement and its modification options, the Prime Minister expressed his personal assessment that in order to change the ruling coalition agreement today, the existing contract would probably be terminated. The Prime Minister had nothing more or additional in mind. This is just a personal opinion of the Prime Minister and an evaluation - with no hints, "- S. Skvernelis spokesman Tomas Beržinskas said to LRT.lt
Conservative leader MP Gabrielius Landsbergis, recently behind closed doors repeatedly communicated with S. Skvernelis, did not rule out the possibility of the formation of a new ruling majority, "Anything can happen. I see a similar picture as it was after the Parliamentary elections - S. Skvernelis wants reforms but does not know whether they will be approved by Parliament. At the time, R. Karbauskis declared that the ruling coalition will not change the situation, Farmers will work with the Social Democrats for three and a half years. Thus, the latter, leaning to the Farmer leader position may pleasure S. Skvernelis. After all, after the elections, R. Karbauskis chose not to negotiate with Conservatives, but with the Social Democrats, and now he once again confirmed the existence of this provision."
G. Landsbergis said that he thought that the Social Democrats, feeling R. Karbauskis disposition to work with them until the end of the term of Parliament, asked for more posts in the future government. Conservative leader did not rule out the possibility that after the elections the Social Democrats party leader may remember his plans to lead the Labour and Social Affairs Ministry.
"I would do the same in their place - pleasure (for power stations - LRT.lt) Skvernelis. Unfortunately, the situation is now worse, as R. Karbauskis is saying that they will continue to work with the Social Democrats, has not left any room for manoeuvres, thereby improving opportunities for the Social Democrats to demand more and more power from S. Skvernelis "- considered G. Landsbergis.
Conservatives are not rushing to power?
How would the Conservatives act, if the ruling Farmers had broken whenever the fraction of the Parliament, and then S. Skvernelis leave with at least twenty of its members and to form a new group? In a case the Conservatives who are in opposition dare to form a new governing majority with S. Skvernelis?
"We have an opportunity - only theoretical. The most Farmer Group foundations trembled through the Greta’s scandal. At the moment they have found a common mode of action. If anything could divide the Farmer group, is a new law draft. For example, Šiauliai University closing. We support those laws or amendments to projects that provided in our party program. And the possibility of forming a new ruling coalition gives no real reason to talk, "- said G. Landsbergis.
He assured that the Conservatives really support forest enterprises and universities reform and public administration reform. However, that is not only because they seek to support or S. Skvernelis or R. Karbauskis, but because this is the party provision.
The Social Democrats won’t depart from the government?
In assessing their young colleagues G. Paluckis and M. Sinkevičius rhetoric , it can be said that after the party chairman election the current ruling coalition agreement with the farmers could be reassessed, ending his term of office as President of the Social Democrat MP Algirdas Butkevičius said he thought that these are electoral slogans of both candidates.
"R. Karbauskis words that before the end of the term we will work together, is the truth ", - assured A. Butkevičius.
He was echoed by a long-standing Parliament vice-leader Irena Šiaulienė, who participated in the negotiations with the Farmers on the coalition: "Our young leaders in order to gain popularity, can (the opportunity to review the coalition agreement - LRT.lt) declare it. As we know, promises cost nothing or cost much less than a small gift."
I. Šiaulienė also pointed out that, if the new party chairman views and sets out to address a coalition agreement with the farmers, he would have to get the approval of the party council.
Will wait until the Farmers will investigate their relationship
The possibility to create a ruling coalition with S. Skvernelis followers of Farmer Group Conservatives and members of the Liberal Movement of the elder group and party vice-president Eugėnijus Gentvilas has no concrete answers: "Let the Farmers talk put their relationship. At this time, it is not clear who find themselves on S. Skvernelis side. Some people from the Farmers faction in Parliament have not uttered a word. The fact that I prefer S. Skvernelis than R. Karbauskis does not mean that potential followers of Prime Minister are acceptable to liberals. If G. Landsbergis is actively involved in the coalition fracture, the liberals have nothing to do with it. "
In considering why the recent increase in S. Skvernelis and G. Landsbergis meetings, E. Gentvilas said he thought that, perhaps, the Conservative leader seeks to highlight the growing divide between the Farmers S. Skvernelio and R. Karbauskis supporters.
G. Paluckis and M. Sinkevičius speeches could be investigated by the ruling coalition with the Frmers’ contract, the Liberal leader rated that as a pre-election promises.
"The talks that the Liberals will participate in a possible new ruling coalition would assess the Northern Lithuania are often heard saying:" What you need there?"- quipped E. Gentvilas.
A rainbow will shine above Lithuanian political sky?
"Once the policy does not exist and is only management, it results in such a situation – everyone is just placing their own plans for the future. For example, S. Skvernelis is thinking about the upcoming presidential elections. G. Landsbergis seeks to establish himself as the leader of the opposition and the ruling through the constant guilty weaknesses. Those two areas are - the Social Democrats and R. Karbauskis. The weak point remains the Social Democrats, we will see afte, who will be elected leader of the party "- in assessing the political situation in Lithuania, said Raimundas Lopata a political scientist.
According to him, the future of the ruling coalition and will depend on how the President Dalia Grybauskaitė plans the future - whether after the end of her second term in 2019 she will stay in Lithuania or will leave to work abroad.
Political scientist L. Bielinis, in turn, noted that now is the most favourable time to act and take root in politics for the Prime Minister S. Skvernelis: "R. Karbauskis, as a politician, is currently stricken by a knockdown, G. Landsbergis and his party chooses points where others fail to do so. Meanwhile, S. Skvernelis in my head, is preparing a plan to regroup as a political force."
L. Bielinis claimed that he did not exclude the possibility that the Lithuanian political life, however, will result in the so-called "rainbow" coalition of the ruling: "I think that S.Skvernelis is waiting for his supporters Farmer peasant "Group to unify, gain strength, and then he will form a new coalition with the Social Democrats and Conservatives. As far as I know, S. Skvernelis is struggling to communicate with the liberals. Only I would like to emphasize that these are my personal insights. "
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