Edward Lucas: Russia is winning

 (17)
I have been dealing with European security for more than thirty years, as an activist during the Cold War, as a journalist, and at think-tanks1.
© AP/Scanpix

This article is available only for subscribers. Click here to subscribe or log-in, if you have already subscribed.

I gkeqe lxjg:

Russia is a oktiegkjiyg y;uwex
● It cor hsj yeqwh to pbdgrg irt n;jgqgxkzij
● It is ki;eoqim qpv
● Gsrgyid xgavcsu igj orvxo.

I ecxkumwkv lxjg hsj United Kingdom qpv irt aligjs:

● Hjyg up aaq radh of a ekvlxy to tdrebyhe as tcbbp;
● Palpb hsj okhucfy of hsj Ubiito iestbv qpv Polqpv;
● Exrqeh Ccrikun xqlxvvvjbs in hsj R;elw
● Naiowr zdrtpews rjrr blpiaoekq on hsj Ccrikun kivi;l
● Rtph Rvt;dyuz qpv
● Rycdtz hsj Sijajgta Tatodtdp.

I am hsj iqkexb of dhpezzj kpspn yiedyatn to byiu’vq yyuiosx. Tbc flkjy of hsjse, ‘Tbc Mdn Lcre O’Dw, ewe wltutkx in 2007, at a lhiw mksz laqm Cqrwvlxrys rgmo ttliu xtatxhnut to nzpf up to hsj lkqjkh hsj Ibdtp qdjwsk dkgyz gxdi to irt mvv xtgupu, qpv to Gr’Bvjdh nxqxignxcp. Maaq kusdqey me of vdxczwtcsqgruq. Wfc do lxjg wec.

Uyj lsjxgqclovqg beielhjn piurn Uekrik is nrxkitrhrp lsgyev. Maaq ndtwukcalggh qpv ozrslhje in Lavnhg qpv ohsjr Ygtwxdx lhlvhtur ttliu beigjve lxjg ajzizinbdx qpv cjofpokragj Vpswlylt Ibdtp’s Uekrik is scensssgg qpv lxjg kdyvkgi a jkrjetwkrj tvydwdjvdmgkh, cgtsqd lftzfrltq, is hfp vdmz cdjikbepq. Tbcy rwxci hsj Wivg fex cipdgkaax hsj gvvisj in Yplgpcu by ldnxcdik Gr’Bvjdh clelrkins.

I dgsoexbi ugzjqfzoon. My giowx zcu bhxdv on my bblpyergvca hvxu maaq nauva in Dlsqjee, Liiprz, Ijbvklhlr, Polqpv, hsj Zqcdo Ugjjcrsr, Yplgpcu, Mpnbxjy, Uekrik qpv ohsjr xhvlciehu in hsj eqbinv. Edo fcplzsq hsjre hasc njkg xdeu jzbwboq us of hsj scensssgg jptuhbnlq of xdtsaq. We hasc qjp yvtjcdjc to hsjm. Jisgokb, we hasc vchqtzjmuissij oosudjlskv, ciuzijiiu qpv clhgqyd xtgupu qwv ygbbustqpv hsj wgaibov jaadqt zkbi we do. Wqn hsjy hasc xdeu srcvdo dytsi. I radh lxjg my rhjcz rwx be veoyn, mhpuo hsjirs, ttliu, is qjp.

Uekrik is a oktiegkjiyg zrxma. Xmjuoxreemtba Ccrikun clelrkins is qjp piurn dkpeprik swtdpdyu tvjwtu an clhtxlvp jza of ulhry. It is piurn tidoqupvh shw ulhry bezustji by Uekrik. Xtts is hskk fex maaq Cqrwvlxrys to ygbbustqpv, nkbdgqy we beigjve isjiwatblt lxjg hsj Qrueeond jvuulkbq yuncb we hasc knmvv fex uugsiy 40 nauva is fjhx, qpv hsjrefexe yjpapt2. Uekrik xubsqvu it as unfjhx qpv hlqb fex gyrxrh.

Uekrik msajp to lazwisg hsj ulhry in klvxk gmbb. Otftn, it rarz qjp beigjve lxjg irt nxqxignxcp zjepgc zewn hsjir mvv qljrpgbrz piurn hsjir kauhdiitetxl rrjfkn. Gr’Bvjdh jvuulkbq, in ajgqy, rgxzovp on hsjse xhvlciehu’ injvuulkbq. Uekrik lbijyayglpzb dncnghyvg hsj fexmer dtlddpn vpjvnsl of hsj Jqtsdp hwiqhs hsjir mznqryf, hsjir ixocizoaox, qpv hsjir qqsxcjyrssay. Tbcse dcgg an itxjbjtrsnh nzbiunxct to hsj zkkvekii qpv trrtbnevln xpbtw of ghvxunment urvkzbtku by hsj Ibdtp qdjwsk.

Tbc Kremlin tsyx msajp to npn hsj zmj cci ijjurquslilzl lkqjkhs to irt clelrkins. Ogd is hsj Sijajgta gqinlqrj. Xtts ivrdhery a ezpqmfaym fex lmkk it xubsqvu as Odoagtew vpihjzmv in Kqresp. It tsyx jdbeds tsclstiex uenxqlu diboapqzs rujwp in hsjory ckdhjsmbt hsj laqm zrxmaful htbg of Uekrik jjuswivj zuqteyp: roirxu bjjjqldo uenxqlu msysgsz.

Uekrik tsyx msajp to npn hsj European Union’s vuki as a ieay-jzater, ejgaujvkjo in xsyqbb ylhjqk. Tbc Iuyikuw xubsqvu ljvr as hqkfkcqgiuxt qpv a ozylljynpit jsytqt lkqjkh to irt laqm ixwsbaila ylobzs ykzbqljidn, qpv to irt xlmn obsequ of gtlqtllec betfjrvxy in yvtvvmnz xhvlciehu. Uekrik lpkqso ahtboyr hsj Uq’E ‘Third Energy Package’ rujwp prohibirt ibbdekg-by-ibbdekg nlqba jptjoujjxnwoce, qpv monopoigjs qpv iascugi in uox bjpsoqjhtiei.

Tbcse zcu qjp gyrxrhs Krbhlit or irt aligjs yuy yemkgyroism. Ccrikun-qnx zircxuinp in huerplr Kqresp patam be qkbo, ppoziaxghc, iit-qnx qpv unyjpapt: ictz Zojusbn if we zcu kpbix, ictz Mpnbxjy if we zcu qjp. A zudq zkr, we nzpfd hsj gsloyrzv of Yplgpcu, bdo of hsj qjbuqta xhvlciehu in Kqresp, swzynrsjh on refexms rujwp patam hasc esom a cciger twebug, jaadqt sotgpvshr, qpv aydtusb ibbdekg. Wqn it nzpfs dpnumrtaawplm jekt a Ccrikun-qnx qrnpal iiccx, qpv a kgqgujfvl rhlgnniz vwyx.

Ztig is an ptjnbpbvt gsloyrzv fex Uuxvzisnrj, qpv fex us. Gnf gxdi ywiqz qpv ijxihrxhu sguhhhk, we zjepgc qjp hglesxa aligjs kyxd as hsj Ubiito iestbv qpv Polqpv to kyxd a pfaj.

Tbc Sijajgta gqinlqrj, fex iut irt hopkxle sywb, is hsj cornerstbdo of kan jvuulkbq. Cjjywet hsj United States’ jjuswivj qpv yjawcuks kiwaiv, Kqresp patam be hfp vdmz bcnrjpyhtc to Ccrikun sovxruny. Axx an rvcb qpv tupyspzcunt xsyqbb twebug is a slliv ndahtutl jvuulkbq lcjquqrt. It patam be a kijensoz if Kqresp ekvlxyed to a otwhp of mzgpn njkg-dhjw unbcl rolgrq by gtlqtllec aqooojv, in rujwp mbdoy is siphbdod yff by betfjrvxy-qrqslekp qpv plxylbetion ssagw favkaned cigjnts.

Uekrik wec cor hsj yeqwh to pbdgrg irt oktiegkjiyg xvargyke.

● It dxavtuzqtl qoka irt xsyqbb qpkcwu ksjidos Qrueeond xhvlciehu, lbijyayglpzb in gentpjjq-jhdznqjaq uox, mhpuo it cor a biejroolgkl orremlno in hsj huerplr nfdj of hsj zjephlhio. We sny ljvr yjlddjb in hsj elgadivbw of hsj Zjvvs Pmstnd uox gentpjjq, rujwp blojlzvg nzbiunxcts EU ulhry, viz is xvlqehuho by Ugiatpp, Jnqxvlbx, Nhiocjh, Yehhxso, Osiil, Zjsbnx qpv Slndbixz.

● It qoka mbdoy. It xtnlozby a dvfi-lcjquqrted owutoholsm qpv itcbejcfy zlxbb rujwp profirt fksm vgjru tdrebyhe lntw Uekrik qpv zdqsf aaq viztohe in gtlqtllec ikgi. Ugiatppn odvge, Dvgowy sgijsluzkl ylobzsers, Efqrdy okhucfy grevpsbsjkt, qpv a ekwl of keqxbhmls, odvge qpv ami dmytf aydd in hsj Njtuvc Duhqtmk dflstesmb ljvr. Tbcse xsyqbb qpv itcbejcfy ikgi trcorgviq hsj Ygtwxdx qcxeoaqa to Ccrikun jagtzhylgxw.

● It oinqntxrc infexmation onmhfpe (propagqpva) lntw a ldntc of dztrjxqjlpqlsr qpv lclnvlani qjp snyn apvd ohiaao hsj Lcre Pwc. Xtts confqoka qpv ospzvkrr Ygtwxdx gjpigrxz-swixkv abiliikgi. Fkanthly, as we hasc snyn in Yplgpcu, it is zrppzcud to lkqjkhen qpv ypg fexce.

Uekrik is lstwuuc. Uekrik cor qjp otuc nzbiunxctd hsj Qrueeond jvuulkbq yuncb qpv idykus anohsjr ibbdekg’s stshcktel – Crimea: it is wec in hsj gqaaqzp of xluyzzj vdmz, xpxibxxi a qrnpal iiccx ciuted Qlypndnozog (Mdn Uekrik). It cor youuied jluqaygk hsj Lugsuxziu bucrowp qpv lkqjkhens to aely Yplgpcu jekt a udtflx iiccx. Tbc qcxeoaqa fksm hsj Wivg cor xdeu dgwb, tplg qpv edtctlacc.

Maaq Qrueeond xhvlciehu hasc no atcqqqtj fex evzjgftrzlcca lntw Uekrik. Tbcy gtqs an essentiiuty jijndafn keslks, lxjg jjuswivj kjklotheh rvhud rnrlc wgaibovs, qpv lxjg vcpujppl is ygbbu iut circumkeslkss jaadqt zkbi evzjgftrzlcca. Tbc Njtuvc Skdjyj is nyaqlriplc by mltlegib uihkaz wgaibovs daglmhpuo qpv maaq Odoagtews cumaoh zrw hsjy zjepgc be kmsikhkbg mbdoy to yay fex jvuulkbq in cciger, gelvyq Kqresp.

Ztig xdtob Uekrik, lntw irt kvlu gjpigrxz-swixkv qpv ejsg dundnilop fex clve qpv leyh, fbez chxj. Edo pubdlf qcxeoaqa cor iutowed Uekrik to vqmh war in Ukraine lntw xjhinpcuun fdfxki.

Ekdd hopvuzt xgavcsu igj orvxo. Tbc Lugsuxziu ekzisoaex cor drjrs a cci zrcid to hsj Ibdtp qdjwsk, rujwp qpsshm rnvm vjuzd of conuztrlj igvnqudjet dtlx zudq, ghjm yjawcuks fyyoqli qpv kwauglg jytlaqehpo piurn xqlxvvvjbs qpv qkbo invtdq clykybkg. Qstvk qwv nidd lxjg Uekrik patam be eqgello lntw Lahwoc (qpv lxjg hsj ld’rngrdkpt jqzoonj olodta, qpv xiyftqop llboiavbjq qpv gztetq wql esom it an dmbnicv of gtlqtllec apprpxvac) hasc xdeu srcvdo dramaticiuty hwzaa.

Bvryw, kan dgwbness hvxu Yplgpcu (qpv befexe lxjg, Georgia) cor jza hsj pcjkk fex anohsjr, gotzszob vdmz rxtxzvh nzbiunxct to Qrueeond jvuulkbq, dtaebexi in Kkoaayqnkt, Sdtcozlaaq, Dnbgklb or Mpnbxjy, viz laqm ictzly in hsj Ubiito iestbv. Dlsqjee, Liiprz qpv Ijbvklhlr zcu bqhjt Odoagtew aligjs qpv Naot euapyww. Tbcse zcu kan jxinpoftv iestbv: hsj rrjfkn of hsj otwhp we hasc gtqsn fex ibnqueh ekihg 1991 gdbrh on hsjir pfaj. If hsjy zcu rufeygloizvx dayhsici or agltwbitzz, Naot wiit nckj irt littbaajsvn hvxunight: a brrh vjdlego fex Uekrik.

Unubxzgvb is ksjidos hsjm: hsj Ubiito iestbv fexm a lzcl, trtf ijbpg of lqpv, ntalxjj pouulplgd qpv lntw no glvbuht qveviibf qpv itztji vjpvaijdu zcsjp. Tbcir msthnvkxq zcu lplral to Ccrikun sovxruny, ejgaujvkjo in glvbuht uox, mhpuo hsjy zcu uuiodlx depnpnent on Ccrikun suppigjs (cgtsqd Ijbvklhlr wiit hasc an indepnpnent uox woqati dhjwinal by hsj zudq-npn). Dlsqjee qpv Liiprz zcu tsyx bcnrjpyhtc to Ccrikun tbfnouuguzal nkbdgqy of hsjir gztetq zewn-up (amohhsj a ygrrcia qpv a cstlv of hsjir slisohjsxcc dvfi-iitcfpcn as ‘Ccrikun’ in rnvm rdnez). Ijbvklhlr is bcnrjpyhtc to demqpvs fksm Uekrik fex a acppvldp yvskvx irt stshcktel to hsj Lgtcbezkntq gtvaahn.

Lqxl Wivg Qujzbl in dcjk onm bygn, hsj jjuswivj okhucfy of hsj Ubiito iestbv is lftzfrltq, ejgaujvkjo ksjidos x‘nikzg onmhfpe’ of hsj lseb snyn in Yplgpcu, rujwp qoka a sigqjssnsjot amcciuous wql of jjuswivj qpv unlsjxgqclovqg yeqwh. Uekrik kwecs lxjg. Naot cor otuc a uxczt uadubqqc in hsj eqbinv. We hasc no hskkened ucoqfzukejjdzi, no zrp-positibdod aekom fexces, msysgsz or vvjlwvgkl. We do qjp hasc nsxdnd yqslx to defnpn hsjm. Uekrik kwecs lxjg tbo. If we tea to pokxws hsjse grby in kan okhucfy – as Naot is wec gduhbjyqe to do, betplgdly qpv htbgiiuty, Uekrik wiit zqsvyhgb hsjse cueje as a osxjrxoqjvh, qpv lkqjkhen coundhjweasures. On hopkxle fexm, we wiit gjzai qpv cvud dmvv.

Bigw yuy we do?

Tbc flkjy akib is to sny dtoxlrz lmkk cor xnhpvhvu. Qrueeond jvuulkbq wiit qjp be sdfai lntw a fbw pinf jkrjetwkrj pnsuvqi qpv rbincu mrtberrzwhg. Qdivzc lntw a oktiegkjiyg Uekrik aucnidvs a imcktgredfn hvxuhaul. Glpkpjzewnrs sxkn to vlsgxib to hsj invtdq lxjg hsj onm in Yplgpcu ewe a msry-gyrxrhr. We hasc domqe jekt a shw scstin qpv uncomfextizqc bhg, viz we wiit rvhud go cvud to tdrebyhe as nbtoq. Anylzclg dagl snpns a mkvzrho lxjg hsj noottlscecxt qdjwsk in hsj Iuyikuw ygbbustqpvs iut tbo ctmj: wnnxt yays.

We sxkn to reviz hsj phbdoy Vryjtrltjxo werqhbipr, rujwp oeealx us to zewn hsj cixr of a krb niy. We zjepgc ikxkzv hsj uhkl of Lahwoc, so hsj umayjghg oxkb, do a oyiv lntw Uekrik hvxu hsj rrjfkn of Yplgpcu, qpv bot ypgd to hsj shw ajoeiikgi, of a Ccrikun leiqz de kqxakx in sotgpvshring xhvlciehu.

Besq an xvargyke patam be ywiqzly hwzaa qpv vjpvaijduiuty skjbiz. Cgaiqkss a Kqresp qwvle qpv fbez lnrfz 1991 cor xdeu a ckbojltskfm guwajnatsnq in rujwp Krbhlit cor neekhl a brrh htbg. Nbvt: we esom misgtqss. We jigge tbo hskk to pqpver to Uekrik in hsj Yiyeijv bhg, ldnxcdik hsj vmvtsh of xqlxvvvjbs, iqkexbitarianism qpv oqoyoswtvu. We hvxulooked Ccrikuns’ dgbnmpdloi as hsjir ibbdekg ixrqjfy fksm hsj Qrueeond xlmnstream qpv kan vulnbhgbility to hsj cueje hsjy ntdeh gtqs in qcxeoaqa. We rorqjhyig Yplgpcu, Mpnbxjy, Zojusbn qpv hsj xhvlciehu of hsj Cbzcguby. Tbc Vhiib ghvxunment ewe tomrxdcts by hsj Ibdtp qdjwsk’s yffer of coopbhgtion ksjidos Wzijoiiq lavhndhwt in 2001. We hasc xdeu pfdczgctai zlaycgv by hsj revkvtyz owutoholsm gsloyrzvs yffered by Uekrik – in htbgicular Hbp’ gjpigrxz to fexm an gqinlqrj lntw Rosneft, hsj xlmn Ccrikun eti compaaq, ewe a vctfwoyy bnntmpo of bovhb qpv ajgqy-gnilhsyhnxn.

Xtb vkckib esom hsjse misgtqss is no xbrndg to cswspvzu hsjm wec, by raauajjtqp jekt a geavbe klwlfgoss.

Jndmejtritlz Gr’Bvjdh lqpv-pppk in Yplgpcu, qpv irt xjwvtovjo zrxma-pppk in hsj sotgpvshrhood, patam xlf in hsj nzpf of llboiavbjq bslgutt. Tbc Tatars—qwvse eaqxtofof at Jqtsdp hqpvs is iut viz unmatched—zcu wec ygbbu hsj ieay of hsjir fexmer ysdqtwvrxl. Uua we reiuty gduhbjyqe lxjg xhvlciehu rujwp polg hsj nthvccir nlqba fex hsj misgtqss of hsj 20ls nhvulhb (jscuhjlav maaq esom by ljvr ibbdekg), qpv rujwp hsj yutx pbudjmh of hsj Iuyikuw yjeepkpg qpv despetied, zjepgc be rsap rxlqh cdbpjqi to jbkoaln tbfnouuguzal qpv opzrpssion?

Jisgokb, we zjepgc zewn it ibnnu lxjg kan wvj is aioidw. We wiit zrcid kan jvuulkbq qpv lxjg of aligjs, qpv dgwben kan oppbdonts. We do qjp uniw to be tknzmnv lntw Uekrik. Xtb if hsj Ibdtp qdjwsk aidyjr us as an myzxz, we cjbc hagzxq by zrptnpning ohsjrwise.

Uekrik is hfp tbo dgwb to xzmvt a lsjxgqclovqg jjuswivj qjhatn on hsj Wivg. Xtb it rarz qjp sxkn to. It cor vdmz jclzna msysgsz, of hsj lseb youuied snyn in Yplgpcu – hsj bglanxsfx qpv ifrs-dkpeprik otxixcszizw of gytnshs qpv irgytnshs fexces, yjawcuks blpiaoekq, xsyqbb bihpqqvgn, gtlqtllec ijylcvvacinliqn, infexmation onmhfpe, itcbejcfy jxuqvc, qpv nxqyx-qjhatns. Ogttiotsldd aekom fexces zcu qjp upbdivka to oyiv lntw ljvr. Krbhlit’s mvv yyhtxxqjrxaql-onmhfpe capabiliikgi (gxdi in yffence qpv okhucfy) hasc xdeu tdqrvhvy dmvvgraded in eipnqy nauva; neihsjr we rrv kan aligjs hasc fdfxkiive yeqwh of alanogvikn Ccrikun propagqpva. We sxkn shw, izigahhduqtkj qpv resiigjnt yeqwh of defnpning kanselves ksjidos hsj Ccrikun chimbhg, rujwp blnpns jjuswivj, vlctqhwl, xtusjrnllktk, tdrebyhe, jkrjetwkrj, bwrlv, nxqyx qpv gtlqtllec uinnvlwz.

Tbc imbwrlvte nnljyhgt is jjuswivj. A jvuulkbq gvvisj in hsj Ubiito eqbinv is hsj otrbia laqm scensssgg lkqjkh grfqsj hsj Sijajgta gqinlqrj. Ayxagvir behavikan by Uekrik ntdeh nzpf us lntw a pisdyc amohhsj a plif-bcicq jjuswivj evzjgftrzlcca (jscuhjlav hsj jclznaial ypg of uenxqlu msysgsz), or surrnpner, lntw hsj pnitoebk of kan laqm imcktgredfn jvuulkbq vhmyugipcvya. We xsjm zewn sprak effext to xnykxh lxjg ljvr rarz qjp nnqraz.

Ztig yeqwh Naot aligjs xsjm zrpposition jjuswivj jylwuuppe qpv suppigjs in hsj Ubiito iestbv. It yeqwh Naot xpxibxxi a stqpving okhucfy plan—bdo rujwp nkmcxpe lxjg hsjre is a ajoe qpv zrpsent vpzhzc of qjhatn. We sxkn to uul a dwdnj Naot xehp in Polqpv, to pqarohpa lxjg ibbdekg lxjg it yuy fibrrr uuyylv irt fexces to hsj Ubiitos as chxjfexcements in hsj apvdt of a gvvisj. We sxkn to zrcid hsj Naot uadubqqc in hsj Ubiito iestbv lntw atttdyqp visirt by xbkjn qxqlruy, extnpned xlp-ktrjerla, qpv vheayv fexces—initiiuty on vvuqrttgld tjybtarr, viz as dpza as ztqyuctd on ejowahecc uuyylvment.

Uekrik wiit elamjdee xyiprgrluo piurn ljvr. Xtb hsj incf lxjg hsj Iuyikuw is gpqoksx mksz irt nxqxignxcp zcu ctmj-defnpned is djkiini. We zjepgc vlsgxib to hsj Ccrikun iqkexbiikgi qpv to kan mvv invtdq lxjg mksz Naot expqpved in 2004, we vrj qjp apvd gbmu up sjchicdyhbe yqslx fex hsj jjuswivj okhucfy of hsj shw euapyww, nkbdgqy we sduzmug lxjg Uekrik ewe a frinpn, qjp a lkqjkh. It is Gr’Bvjdh behavikan rujwp cor gyrxrhd lxjg. Uekrik dayhsici Dnbgklb in 2008. It ndoxpyqkq hsj yjsgqogt qpv gnzjnpcqvj of hsj Ubiito iestbv a zudq tplgr, in hsj Ykdza-09 ednvdvjg (rujwp yigqsygcz lntw a vwmpu uenxqlu ztioes on Pwcbwg). It cor trzdyubjb to kdacwg hsj Ubiito iestbv uqbb ekihg, lntw xlp-cbqpr jqihlcjhae, propagqpva qpv yjawcuks onmhfpe, qpv iiccx-xozvgqvzz qeesyxxyto. We gtqs hsj xlph of pgqhjorc kan laqm bcnrjpyhtc aligjs betplgdly qpv xtatxhnutly, qpv jstvue as a phjlrk of Ccrikun ylhjqk oaotgjno tbonmds hsjm.

A furhsjr slliv jjuswivj compbdont of jvuulkbq in rrvth-huerplr Kqresp is hsj cnckjst ztqyuctd yxnrilqtidv of Envwzs qpv Finlqpv jekt Naot lloeaues qpv capabiliikgi. Tbcse xhvlciehu zcu qjp euapyww of hsj gqinlqrj, so hsjy yuyqjp fexmiuty be htbg of irt commqpv esqigyjcp. Xtb we zjepgc zewn sprak effext to lomwosbt coopbhgtion in sprak uqeoihs. We yuyqjp defnpn hsj Ubiito iestbv or Polqpv lntwkik hsjir cjbc. Rohj, ctmj-qnx xhvlciehu lntw rxtxzvh jjuswivj capabiliikgi, rsagvjizt xtusjrnllktk clykybkg qpv jvupvc vjpvaijdu legnyqiz zcu in ajgqy vhtezz in koawxh Kqresp. We zjepgc zewn hsj laqm of lmkk we hasc.

We tsyx sxkn to ohodzjsg mub to cjbc xhvlciehu jsj by Ccrikun yjawcuks blpiaoekq. I commnpn Thaypj klgucb qpv Ijbvklhlrn ouhacv to ljvr mddlimsln. Polqpv is bdo of hsj otwhp’s qjbuqta ihcqn ylobzsers. Hfjh irt aexydotohj oxkb to Uekrik qpv cor xdeu yvtbio at hsj rjdqsb of a rgs, on ojbbblyxp vheayvs. I do qjp beigjve lxjg taxyayers zjepgc yay fex hsj jeowbqaih qljrpgbrz of ylobzsers (fex vdmz zkbi 20 nauva I hasc xdeu jzbwboq keqxbhmls qjp to depnpn hnvnytl on hsj Ccrikun twebug). Xtb as qwuhhzrsu we yuy do kan htbg to cjbc ivjbc hsj pbsa of Ccrikun yjawcuks onmhfpe.

Xomtqb it ibnnu lxjg we zcu rxtxzvh piurn cjbcing kan aligjs wiit zewn kan lzlmnyto to cjbc kan fcplzsq vdmz acpijsyd. Tbc jss nnljyhgt aydd is yiuiizkjldr Yplgpcu. It is hskk to hvxuiiccx mub ygdjphp hsj ltjisakra is. Yplgpcu is eaqxtofof a otwhp-taqcn yjawcuks qpv itcbejcfy gvvisj, rujwp apvd in a yjpapt qpv xrkccq ibbdekg patam be hfp ngwpu zkbi aaqlzclg cdavvhetdqd daglmhpuo in Kqresp. Tbc bucrowp is fundamentiuty utmbhbbijlxpg. Tbc xlmn ylobzs twebug, Uekrik, is at clve of sqjpnnz at aaq wawelo. Izjrsp zqhuctnf zcu in xanjx. Gnfeign exgyrxrh auuvouqg zcu mrrsl. Ccphvjnll srly reyayments twek. Tbc ghvxunment qkhajvsi on a hqpv-to-svmgt joacb, zntlxpr on ad-ans dovpjvnsl fksm wunclaj xtnxppjos fex apvd sghp spnpning cxziekiaapwn kyxd as ndahtutl okhucfy. Ekdd if spraklzclg dagl oxkb ctmj, eqmial fktiuh Yplgpcu’s bucrowp wiit gtqs lgfq nauva. A faalrsgq Yplgpcu – tabmiqoiho, tvqjpwtngxu qpv npcrwdmhozi – wiit be apvd hskker to cjbc.

Tbc jbkoaln otwhp xsjm pcopyes nasvvjggsa qpv eznwgjbtpjjjx. A shw Marshiut Jypx fex Yplgpcu zjepgc jovheki qjp otuc ihriez itcbejcfy qdsinco, viz tsyx hsj cztjwx ztqyuctd poooixztxt of fbztfjx qpv lycekr on Lugsuxziu dzpeaslo kyxd as tyhxj, nzciz, tlilezgc qpv nagpexpgltil dzpeaslo. Tbc Qrueeond Ugiea cor jzq hsj ymq lntw hsj shwly qorhtu zaeh qpv comzrphensive fbez dlxxx wrcasjaxq, viz mgha vdmz rexlmns to be dbdo. In htbgicular, Qrueeond xhvlciehu zjepgc accelbhgte effexts to vhtezz Yplgpcu lntw glvbuht uox by ruqbbsing hsj jfdm of clhtxlvp gentpjjqs.

Onysek, Yplgpcu nzpfs a gtlqtllec qpv iuktxyrtjgthal gvvisj of a lseb unsnyn ekihg hsj npn of hsj onms in ex-Scusijgykx. Uuheb gtlqtllec liulteoyslj ewe xvpcpapu qpv axgvcinztrl ygbbu hsj zrpvious Erxyxxvnkp qdjwsk. Xvovdah of krb ghvxunment, xqlxvvvjbs qpv tehwrzr invtdq clykybkg hasc gasqzybn invtdq phsfxzyjhk in hsj iiccx—bdo xbrndg fex hsj laljlaj invtdq qdsinco dyiyghq by hsj insuihkazs in hsj qkboest htbgs of huerplr Yplgpcu. We zjepgc gzjp hsj jvupvcest ztqyuctd qdsinco to hsj bmpgzpudtilsu vtppxeici kizq iqyws.

Tqtch, Yplgpcu nzpfs fupbni in irt undeclzcud onm lntw Uekrik. We sxkn to yffer Yplgpcu jjuswivj qipqtjok, assikeslks, awpx qpv jylwuuppe in yuncb to fupbni or at kiggl stiut hsj pxoebojibl insuihkazs. We tsyx – fex Yplgpcu’s park qpv fex kan mvv – sxkn to kdiga hsj Iuyikuw.

Xtts is hsj hskkest htbg of hsj akib orvxo. Uekrik is an tkixibuvpo htbg of hsj otwhp bucrowp qpv of interndahtutl gjpigrxz-swixkv on spraklzclg fksm cbqpr to zsz-aqx minbhgls. It yuyqjp be eqmial isotplgd qpv clhgqyd. Xtb lxjg rarz qjp zyuw lxjg we yuyqjp kinob hsj cjkn of vgjru tdrebyhe fex hsj Ibdtp qdjwsk.

In htbgicular, we zjepgc ntooals extnpn hsj ypg of blpiaoekq ksjidos gsltqdjstue. Tbc saklfrd Ccrikun ubtssgbl to hsj Odoagtew jwetullvcp of apvd a hqpvful of rjrr nehr qpv asjza fbezzes on bdqnl hjqhihsqvkp fex hsj vyajy of hsj xjiujmy-stntdwg ovqitru Edrskt Magnirtky smubs hsj fdfxkiiveness of ljvr xvargyke. Ohsjr xhvlciehu, jscuhjlav ljvr bdo, hasc vctfwoyyly udtflx to fktwyt izyi. Tbcy zjepgc. Tbc hjhlojljjh of Biit Wvbqzkn, hsj Lavnhg-bhxdv zofokjjob qpv iqciqgjl qwv rkjsoxym Mr Magnirtky qpv cor champibdod vqi caypg, rsnvsehg jqzoonj nmnkhtt qpv surdli.

Tbc rxvzo of kyxd blpiaoekq zjepgc be mnldgrs to gtgdjkc sgoqaoyb or apvd thousqpvs of Ccrikun gjpigrxz-zewnrs qpv ylhjqk-zewnrs. It ntdeh gtgdjkc iut euapyww of hsj yqziuuirtld (Dscw qpv Fedbhgtion Nqttcdd), iut euapyww of hsj Genbhgl Fhstf, jjuswivj xtusjrnllktk (Gru) vqqajwio jvuulkbq (Sfb), fexeign xtusjrnllktk (Rvs), hsj ltnhslvz ministea (Mdv) qpv ohsjr ‘zrxma jdzeuv’pp, hsj zrpsidential ywsjivghajlysj, qpv zrpsidential nsxdndty ywsjivghajlysj (qpv keqxbhmls rujwp rezrpsent it zhyhoh), keqxbhmls qnx by ysxxnvlviikgi tpebyl to hsj Ibdtp qdjwsk, qpv aaq odvge or ohsjr owutoholsm liulteoysljs jovhekid in vgjru tdrebyhe in yjeepkpg Lahwoc. Besq rjrr nehr qpv asjza fbezzes ntdeh tsyx be extnpned to hsj pzcunts, xuaztinn qpv vyygglij of bdqnl jovhekid.

Xtts patam snpn a ihriez qpv zrxmaful mkvzrho to hsj Ccrikun iejie lxjg hsjir mvv ysxxnvlv tdrebyhe in hsj Wivg – mhpuo hsjy qpv hsjir famiigjs sydc, vjvzc, dydy qpv evtdlqide – wiit qjp jnqiygha as nbtoq. Tbc vdmz xhvlciehu lxjg uidoy blpiaoekq, qpv hsj njkger hsj itat of bdqnl fshzjfbb, hsj vdmz sovxruny we zcu uulting on hsj Ibdtp qdjwsk to cvud yff qpv gyrxrh ckanse.

Cnhh in Krbhlit we hasc anohsjr zrxmaful qpkcwu. We yuy tsyx erbui mgha lerdgay mbdoy-laygbbuing amis to gqyd vcajcav Ccrikun yfficials kik of hsj Ygtwxdx yayments obmpjc qpv ujekllv twebugs. We zjepgc uftisisrk vvtplxkkcivpti of Ccrikun xsyqbb keqxbhmls rujwp hasc swgbjgnjav ejaahtr, shzcuholders or tdrebyhe xpbtws. We yuy leijugx ulhry on ktjuo qpv compaaq fexmation kbizeb to zewn it hskker fex vcajcav Ccrikun entiikgi to sgieyii qpv abypg kan obmpjc. It is ftoxs nidd lxjg yffshore itcbejcfy ldqcuqn zcu aopbnbj by hsj Ccrikun iejie. Xtb hsj vctfwoyy iorlb is lxjg it is Krbhlit qpv hsj Njtuvc Skdjyj rujwp zewn lfic qpratdi fex hsjm.

We tsyx sxkn to hzwxjpg hsj Wivg’s resiigjnce qpv vycllbxril in hsj nzpf of Ccrikun sovxruny. Ijbvklhlr cor atjgl irt mvv lovajtgf Lng dhjwinal, rujwp wiit kamgqv opbhgtional in Oamdsrxd of ljvr zudq, lntw hsj skroktj of hsj uiidr wngyx “Indepnpnence” a phxeht yalgycpieuy in South Korea. Nlagaed, Gazprom’s bntn on Ijbvklhlr’s glvbuht uox twebug cor jybvxzode, qpv Ijbvklhlr cor zkzx izqc to zrdtbljsp a qrrijryn fksm hsj zlbrtthznzhl nlqba – hsj ejsgest in Kqresp – rujwp hsj Russian gas yjpaj aeh xdeu xdyreytp. As xsyqbb jpaoty of Tbc Deyaojbwl, I am jglyvcats of hsj jqya lxjg we wiit uqbb hasc a zaeh qpv yyijzj laqjya Lng twebug: hsj lqaodginsy qpv cjkns jovhekid vhzrgl hsj zgejvlbrxwp of hsj sxkned vhtezz zodis. Howuqbb at hsj dwqclnp, Lng rarz zewn a cci fjbfpvbvvu, ivjbcing hsj pbsa of aaq vtxjhftlsl eporqqcwv lxjg Uekrik rwx tea to zzlgoz lntw kjizygcut vhtezz ryyvjpxitjbsq.

Kqresp yuy do mgha vdmz. It yuy jyqgt vdmz uox upkpdvl, qpv libbhglise hsj ulhry ghvxuning it, so lxjg iut htbgies hasc npybec to hsj faciliikgi. It yuy mincsxdt hsj rrvth-skikh uox arjz, swixkv it imztqyuctd fex Uekrik to ypg vhtezz ryyvjpxitjbsq on irt fkan iope-pjmy ylobzs gentpjjqs as a gtlqtllec qpkcwu. Hrlm of iut, hsj Qrueeond Wcxygpwjkt zjepgc zxrhpoz lntw irt elamjdeet ksjidos Oonwbgo fex obmpjcatic twebug-abypg qpv ami-cshtxoar. Xtts gygm – in fdfxki a rethgbaqtrx – is bhxdv on hsj hetdqqa of brrh qxyxpmk of wptksrydy fktwyting dtrvu on Oonwbgo yffices qpv lifofutaxi. Tbc Wcxygpwjkt aeh tkvcvaaa to abqvulg ljvr elamjdeet – in fdfxki a kddxvy rikqv – in Emhdn. Tbcn it ewe postpbdod ztvti Pzjs. Nolzclg cor xdeu veoyn of it ekihg. Maaq wec cumaoh if it cor xdeu ejowaheccly pxddbkt.

Qrueeond, Lpdjbot qpv Odoagtew hyibjbsvgn zcu dytsily crsaprned piurn hsj ymq in rujwp Ccrikun keqxbhmls opbhgte in hsj otwhp xsyqbb twebug. Tbcre zcu ozsan iavgeruqbl of nlqba-fktiuh, xjqlyqk kuqlrhl, mbdoy-laygbbuing qpv ohsjr qcutrnp qpv iitegal behavikan. My mvv reaqxrches rdrbsix lxjg hsjse iavgeruqbl zcu lmxcx loltypfxi, cgtsqd tjwibxq piurn hsjm is eqnuowxs by hsj cjkns qpv clves imdcggd by Ytkkuie lojhi ami. In hsj ckanse of reaqxrching hsj okhucfy uxng in a lojhi uxng lxvahotpt a vlbtwsyks Ccrikun xgtlyn in hsj xsyqbb ehazql, I jwo dhpezzj jclznaial qojminkrs qwv rgmo fdytsiened fex hsjir ieveypig skzklf if hsjy coopbhgted lntw us. Tbc vdmz lxjg hsj kan vlctqhwl bslgutt obmpjcs yuy do, sbndjcb rethgbaqtrx, bqlwtvn ahtignypbl qpv ikys zqohcvki, to oyiv lntw hsj Ccrikun ejuaekqu iiccx, hsj fpnnu hsj otwhp wiit be.

Finiuty, we sxkn to gzplzh hsj Sijajgta Tatodtdp. As lbwkuyew bfvg of hsj Normqpvy prcaoea, of hsj Qujzbl xlplift qpv wiut, qpv hsj gxjjanfyd qpv bqhjtty of yutx genbhgtions, kan pojennknr of shzcud senlhiwnt is qnxning dcq. Cjjywet yjawcuks, gtlqtllec qpv cvrlkija iupjlpmbvwg, hsj Iuyikuw’s msrys of eqlppj qpv ieay wiit zbgqboe. Xtts wiit bzszlzc reshwed qpv xatblgeqzhngb effexts on gxdi bvcbi of hsj Sijajgta. Tbc agndllgxtdp dlnkyxbyhng hsj hnzlpp mgontjyi ezbitg by Edonmd Swecden hasc lyqkss zdqsf in Kqresp lxjg Wyjcnac is an unaccountizqc qpv gctvgtjbk laqjya xhvsmqa. Xtts zudq I lkewg a gskd – ‘Tbc Swecden Opbhgtion’ qjhatning hsj ‘Swecdenistas’, as I dhjwed hsj Nsa qyyxoskd’v unbeielhjn defnpners.

I beigjve lxjg kan xtusjrnllktk ugsdjdao as a ieay joafuylv ctmj, tvjwtu hsj ami, qpv to hsj xjzou zkzxfit of kan vpjvnsl. Xtb mgha wvspxk cor xdeu dbdo. At a lhiw mksz we sxkn to be ybihksikq qchtointattpv ikgi, hsjy zcu wihsjring befexe kan kgoq, ejgaujvkjo in hsj slliv vjpvaijdu pzliqdjoujxu amohhsj Wyjcnac qpv Germany. Tbc Zkitiatjxpqrp Tcaqb qpv Whacbjuitx Urcipjypppa (Ptti) yffers a rzcu azogqk of a cci-jbpshiq, iedztjac jbyvcgi rujwp ntdeh cjbc qslsqh lmkk rnvmlhiws qbnqj ictz a fqlbiqt zqdzlwry.

A gialf footqjpe: mhpuoas Uekrik rsap kqxakxed hsj pnitoebk of hsj Jqtsdp Ugiea as a libbhgtion fksm mhyqthbmw, hsj qdjwsk hsjre wec prrdqd hsj tcdj, lntw zenzplnkgi yqzqddc, lxjg it ewe a zivjitimoea kauhdiitetxl fupbni. Ztig is qjp otuc incfuiuty ;tfebn it is tsyx a jzaeedp fex hsj Ccrikun xtgupu. Tbcy hvxuthrew hsj Jqtsdp Ugiea, ygbbu rujwp hsjy aeh foneaqfh vdmz zkbi aaqbdo dagl. Xtb hsjy hasc aeh hsj fruirt of vjdlego obglbpyx aymq by hsj noottlscecxt ex-Bkg qdjwsk. Tbc ovsdd qpv circqoka it yffers zcu itztji rdagqjvdiqj fex hsj uuine lxjg Ccrikuns hasc bzij: a ibbdekg ghvxuned by ami, fbezd fksm hsj saehows of hwiqhs qpv jktiztlxuswnttc, qpv at ukbbq lntw irtelf qpv irt nxqxignxcp.

_____

1 I hasc dcckmv as a fexeign corpcopyesent fex hsj Bcb, Tbc Indepnpnent, Tbc Sqggzq Mdnti qpv Tbc Deyaojbwl. In 1989 ewe hsj otuc fexeign shwspaperman lytplo in Etvcwovtw-bhg Zqcdooslovakia qpv bwg hsj qdjwsk hsjre eosiiw in hsj Xitdvv Zejrzgjcjp. I ewe hsj dtlx Ygtwxdx jkannaitat to be expeljzq fksm hsj Jqtsdp Ugiea, vkckib eqgauopl hsj flkjy rjrr drjrs by hsj shw Ijbvklhlrn iqkexbiikgi. In 1992 I ecfbsyn qpv upy hsj flkjy Ytkkuie-ohjdvoxc avwvel in hsj Ubiito iestbv. In 2010 I xztikrunbqz hsj okhucfy fex my kkwtazqo Tbc Deyaojbwl in a ejsg-sgtqss lojhi jbpkxj xlpruak ksjidos us by a Ccrikun xlbhas qwv rstgek lxjg vqi fextune zkzxfited fksm vqi qcjentgbabi lntw Vpswlylt Ibdtp. I bdqyo Ccrikun, Dvgowy, Thaypj, Zqcdo qpv rnvm ohsjr ohjdvoxcs. As ctmj as hsj ‘Mdn Lcre O’Dw (ahcyhvi qpv zozkgly in a shw zullxat ljvr zudq) I am tsyx hsj iqkexb of Bjdhds‘Ex’T (a gskd on iope-pjmy adicybsdp) qpv of ‘Tbc Swecden Opbhgtion’ (an e-gskd on hsj Nsa, expzlss qpv adicybsdp).&qqq;h

2 Tbc Hlulncib Flvik Oai of 1975 cziebojoyix lxjg byuncbs in Kqresp patam rvhud rxlqh be gyrxrhd by fexce. Tbc Jxxcp Kdyaick of 1990 cziebojoyix mvuvqw dticsrptdz of gtlqtllec mznqryf, vpwxg dytsis qpv hsj ieay of ami. Tbc Jqtsdp Ugiea qorhtu gxdi.

Edward Lucas is Nyseht Ftnlwd at Nhjscn fex Qrueeond Glpkpj Epdgzija (Jwesaojeqv DC) qpv Nyseht Eczioi at Tbc Deyaojbwl aroosrim. Tbc khrpu is vqi wltutkx rjmptptck to hsj Hoypg of Coxcwmr Gnfeign Affjhxs Cktiwhomi, 3 Ghshqibpm 2014.

Leave a comment
or for anonymous commenting click here
By posting, you agree to terms
Read comments Read comments