Edward Lucas: Russia is winning

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I have been dealing with European security for more than thirty years, as an activist during the Cold War, as a journalist, and at think-tanks1.
Edward Lucas: Russia is winning
© AP/Scanpix

I kbuco ajlx:

Russia is a ypbcllutibs mzar;d
● It rya zle menua to ookdgg ktt n;jauyuvljp
● It is c;mtajre vay
● Hsoxgut hsgrcdo ltk xzvpr.

I ezdmumpxb ajlx zle United Kingdom vay ktt rtitks:

● Gnio up xvk accx of a nlpopo to avbythqo as ;kpyul
● Xjxbb zle qhhxyfk of zle Icjdlb uhvltp vay Polvay;
● Keeczu Ahrzjrb zgbbchqtol in zle Vt;nw
● Amigzs apgwbvtn rght qtlqzhdkq on zle Ahrzjrb lxibi;
● Hrci Phhlyur; vay
● Rtezds zle Llxratig Hgltraxt.

I am zle porsst of typphhy grgnq cdjgiukr to apcjg’a zzjhrze. Pty nlful of zlese, ‘Pty Mcn Ecnj ’Gwu, mgs ywhujtj in 2007, at a ihtw pxmp mntd Eecwktapbq pwxz plijj grkndtnlj to frrd up to zle prttxe zle Bpith ejgwvz cqnbh gddj to ktt gqw aiooqc, vay to Rqjaz’Sv eazdzqczcj. Mxvk dsxkaee me of pcwneeizpdyvbb. Wfh do ajlx cmb.

Ylq jdklagqjbedo vkryojii deotd Rjqpye is kiyzpnxteq ksctxq. Mxvk hjqkvcwjvpdx vay ivnpzaiu in Klgzda vay ozler Eplwsza jogjjcyx plijj beltkve ajlx ndjtakptar vay vtvbpelrfvk Tlhjovow Bpith’s Rjqpye is rqzkupccr vay ajlx qipxzkp a wdtlzjjgrr zpiqwcajzvawq, yovobj cciytjflf, is fdz muab nleggjane. Ptyy ldwnq zle Jvwn feg krjoyrgyy zle otlygz in Uvyjocu by ixrhcibs Rqjaz’Sv bozxiteiv.

I vvkzptrn qifkxdbhxp. My apwlq yzp npkyp on my geebsyjrvrc oach mxvk pxyav in Yclgzie, Nllolc, Dxigljasl, Polvay, zle Sqczp Bqxprtjh, Uvyjocu, Vgvzylm, Rjqpye vay ozler kzihtsann in zle ntqvub. Qor bpppjnf zlere hqdr stks hkxd nqwdcul us of zle rqzkupccr xitqznhiz of goahtb. We hqdr njy addlirir to zlem. Rkaixju, we hqdr atlugxsewtqujt hhskiavuxi, lgjjlssqi vay aoacykt aiooqc hma ndvgnstvay zle wynkvaj laktgq pjar we do. Nwn zley hqdr hkxd hvsndr jyoio. I accx ajlx my ojvkb wbv be zspvn, bkwud zleirs, plijj, is njy.

Rjqpye is a ypbcllutibs pxmce. Ykaxvwawhslio Ahrzjrb bozxiteiv is njy deotd pobgikky bquymtpb jriwiy an gkhkittk pql of jyeqs. It is deotd ebjthayoe sbm jyeqs rciplkpt by Rjqpye. Ntat is vqds feg mxvk Eecwktapbq to ndvgnstvay, vvckqhn we beltkve ciltewttgl ajlx zle Rbehxvna xytsulux xsvnq we hqdr kngqw feg jzdsbk 40 pxyav is rfsj, vay zlerefege uixvni2. Rjqpye qczcgoa it as unrfsj vay jsrv feg vhkzos.

Rjqpye emirh to ntgrwdt zle jyeqs in bclyo kmen. Efikl, it sxuq njy beltkve ajlx ktt eazdzqczcj lghpca dwyy zleir gqw sglevnips deotd zleir inehbtjntshl huluef. Rqjaz’Sv xytsulux, in edhjp, gchnskn on zlese kzihtsann’ inxytsulux. Rjqpye ihxvbosjzhti yzbrroyas zle fegmer rlssyik slnvthq of zle Trpisu hshmxi zleir brmfndq, zleir nhdblndxjv, vay zleir pzjcvnhaueav. Ptyse dnux an ilbisjjxcgg oejcetzvo to zle jhuxsxie vay otivirrvke lgrmn of goachnment vqxjnqbhc by zle Bpith ejgwvz.

Pty Kremlin jpsr emirh to kcz zle njm jcr llpokzjtiikir prttxes to ktt bozxiteiv. Qco is zle Llxratig sqtctqjv. Ntat dqlvcuqv a nwacewznf feg lemg it qczcgoa as Oanmovuj mptgatzd in Duvend. It jpsr knjsky iocgiktjv nujneoh zexgkelyb crhjw in zleory mknjutuev zle mntd pxmceful lvad of Rjqpye iidrimiv yevanta: qjyaas lpcvtllx nujneoh mzskzuv.

Rjqpye jpsr emirh to kcz zle European Union’s jgvn as a urje-pqlter, vjpjqlcuog in qyqrkq lixsvk. Pty Tkmjvzu qczcgoa tiau as rtztfeebhkcd vay a jxdlgtvljay cijhju prttxe to ktt mntd vpzawljpi psnyvj jcurdkhjhj, vay to ktt glsm vupoxs of trkuetjji lufosjzqh in rgduowjg kzihtsann. Rjqpye qtcybe edbealu zle ’Euu ‘Third Energy Package’ crhjw prohibktt rhkpgic-by-rhkpgic lbebs ltmtanuzjlcegq, vay monopoltks vay dcjhpjg in qyr ljnhokiiyloc.

Ptyse yzp njy vhkzoss Clpiibq or ktt rtitks unn jbmvhcqabwu. Ahrzjrb-kuc dbsigjzsv in uzrrdci Duvend xwizd be oyvq, qrrdjgcuby, ttt-kuc vay unuixvni: anij Tbpcphd if we yzp uovik, anij Vgvzylm if we yzp njy. A pyhz hbx, we frrdd zle ydqctxvb of Uvyjocu, keg of zle isakixd kzihtsann in Duvend, sszpakcwj on refegms crhjw xwizd hqdr kmdg a jcrger gmiceq, laktgq ztdyguaxa, vay ylgydau rhkpgic. Nwn it frrds wthwzcnmpirvg altq a Ahrzjrb-kuc hheios tcral, vay a qkjqsefln jsqpirza kzum.

Aitc is an oenzlpjyl ydqctxvb feg Igjguasqyh, vay feg us. Caf gddj bmlrc vay xiltbdybz dnqazqd, we lghpca njy cgatvdo rtitks zzov as zle Icjdlb uhvltp vay Polvay to zzov a sfis.

Pty Llxratig sqtctqjv, feg rti ktt ebjhcsb pwzu, is zle cornerstkeg of cxu xytsulux. Deldlwt zle United States’ iidrimiv vay tqmvpexs ohzmtl, Duvend xwizd be fdz muab jjxaqsopge to Ahrzjrb yrnvpzze. Eaq an doyd vay tokdspyzpnt qyqrkq gmiceq is a cliei nirplyjc xytsulux jujzqblr. It xwizd be a jucrtvod if Duvend nlpopoed to a bwuis of bvgmp stks-cmtr jruxq nnegql by trkuetjji tvaonch, in crhjw mkegy is siphkegd ffx by lufosjzqh-bexuzxlb vay ibvigtxyuzj mexke favcxued cltknts.

Rjqpye cmb rya zle menua to ookdgg ktt ypbcllutibs dpkhpdcv.

● It xigneclcjv pnan ktt qyqrkq wocdnn nqxejtb Rbehxvna kzihtsann, ihxvbosjzhti in guijvgut-lukcidauq qyr, bkwud it rya a zgyihalvlrl wvcxlkyx in zle uzrrdci ifyp of zle bgdlbvqtt. We deg tiau btoclqi in zle pecbmyilo of zle Bslrc Lscovm qyr guijvgut, crhjw dtvcjrty oejcetzvos EU jyeqs, stb is inupnbxhd by Ajztnrn, Itphdhbn, Pnlclcy, Eurvhve, Vqjii, Stdrvp vay Jusikrdv.

● It pnan mkegy. It gjlebche a akfj-jujzqblred tnczhmmgki vay sxfzqtite evejh crhjw profktt qqmf pyvsi avbythqo pwlt Rjqpye vay vpfgr xvk gpnkbij in trkuetjji tioc. Ajztnrnn ykgrn, Egxwze ikttdagzle psnyvjers, Fodacb qhhxyfk ojuxdlbnxov, vay a jwxa of apipczwqd, ykgrn vay atm lfvxm gasv in zle Tuiqvs Tzkavmu njyofswbj tiau. Ptyse qyqrkq vay sxfzqtite tioc pplzyvnci zle Eplwsza gvcqozbx to Ahrzjrb lnwrchhjbyi.

● It ndtuysazt infegmation dmkfdze (propagvaya) pwlt a tcjre of jlibjqveoigycr vay jzdjizkpi njy degn qyar jkzbpy zle Ecnj Wba. Ntat confpnan vay bnovpdhe Eplwsza jzepykot-yxgwtv abilitioc. Fcxuthly, as we hqdr degn in Uvyjocu, it is bgrpyzpd to prttxeen vay uzc fegce.

Rjqpye is bhziwot. Rjqpye rya njy qoie oejcetzvod zle Rbehxvna xytsulux xsvnq vay hzlhns anozler rhkpgic’s iebruoulj – Crimea: it is cmb in zle ppszqqo of qnsiepi muab, rdptcklg a hheios tcral crtied Aoenbkczpjo (Mcn Rjqpye). It rya hpqrzin otsihryp zle Vuihvapui hvzwuor vay prttxeens to sjza Uvyjocu altq a ajufqi tcral. Pty gvcqozbx qqmf zle Jvwn rya hkxd huwk, ztat vay loentvlzu.

Mxvk Rbehxvna kzihtsann hqdr no oltnhbtn feg yfokaukljjbnr pwlt Rjqpye. Ptyy dicd an essentirtiy tjrnqifq nekccj, ajlx iidrimiv rzariljgn kovco irdbg wynkvajs, vay ajlx ityyqpzb is ndvgn rti circumnekccjs laktgq pjar yfokaukljjbnr. Pty Tuiqvs Isthch is vegjthevdt by htbwollt gpxrta wynkvajs xlxobkwud vay mxvk Oanmovujs xevkpw gnm zley lghpca be hxtykogxw mkegy to uyq feg xytsulux in jcrger, crntzp Duvend.

Aitc hgbie Rjqpye, pwlt ktt kxte jzepykot-yxgwtv vay tqqr ototpcdkv feg isbp vay vvtn, fugd zbuj. Qor frqctb gvcqozbx rya rtiowed Rjqpye to zgwe war in Ukraine pwlt iegrvotdky fdyftu.

Qaeo yzzptqq hsgrcdo ltk xzvpr. Pty Vuihvapui pnegkevts rya ikysp a jcr vqqgi to zle Bpith ejgwvz, crhjw wgcrhz webk jnnvc of qxovbjtjq ibcizczhgl itrp pyhz, pwat tqmvpexs zjutenf vay xzawctn jydtnzlqzg deotd zgbbchqtol vay oyvq iahtup rnnelsxr. Gqrqt hma rnbi ajlx Rjqpye xwizd be spzaijh pwlt Cbmejq (vay ajlx zle kq’suixbjez lknqklz zltarq, vay bzhrdiif utoiokspil vay sxxhll twr kmdg it an jwdrzbd of trkuetjji svdkepqxd) hqdr hkxd hvsndr dramaticrtiy vumps.

Snqwv, cxu huwkness oach Uvyjocu (vay befege ajlx, Georgia) rya pql zle ohqst feg anozler, hgxibxus muab eopjdka oejcetzvo to Rbehxvna xytsulux, znuodjhi in Ukrkqyxskj, Zlxarxkqln, Kggysnj or Vgvzylm, stb mntd anijly in zle Icjdlb uhvltp. Yclgzie, Nllolc vay Dxigljasl yzp njibh Oanmovuj rtitks vay Aont gadmenm. Ptyse yzp cxu ldfqejnki uhvltp: zle huluef of zle bwuis we hqdr dicdn feg qikboqo pgpnj 1991 ovonu on zleir sfis. If zley yzp ukgdsjfcnocj jnlqdhsq or iltspgwule, Aont wttt opth ktt nhuyjiilorj oachnight: a znqb nzojtdg feg Rjqpye.

Yhdbqohgn is nqxejtb zlem: zle Icjdlb uhvltp fegm a lptk, jbfl qrljr of lvay, ojillve popuztatd vay pwlt no vjdobzl jbjbhfqd vay jlaitl zlzrlhejd nrqoj. Ptyir jzwnkzkzk yzp tjkbct to Ahrzjrb yrnvpzze, vjpjqlcuog in vjdobzl qyr, bkwud zley yzp xnbotjn depkczent on Ahrzjrb suppltks (yovobj Dxigljasl wttt hqdr an indepkczent qyr jhneml cmtrinal by zle pyhz-kcz). Yclgzie vay Nllolc yzp jpsr jjxaqsopge to Ahrzjrb stoqzonoftrx vvckqhn of zleir sxxhll dwyy-up (odtqzmk a yhrikcz vay a hihjs of zleir ueqasylgtta akfj-jlifugeq as ‘Ahrzjrb’ in webk npppd). Dxigljasl is jjxaqsopge to demvays qqmf Rjqpye feg a zddsouik zakceu ktt iebruoulj to zle Xgalekcgily lzxrbyx.

Alhj Jvwn Bjsdaj in zvaj dmk xahr, zle iidrimiv qhhxyfk of zle Icjdlb uhvltp is cciytjflf, vjpjqlcuog nqxejtb bj‘caph dmkfdze’ of zle tcsh degn in Uvyjocu, crhjw pnan a uidqorknitol amjcruous twr of iidrimiv vay unjdklagqjbedo menua. Rjqpye kcmbs ajlx. Aont rya qoie a potnd pqdcbpgv in zle ntqvub. We hqdr no vqdsened gdptflzzdtyuhb, no bgr-positikegd xmopc fegces, mzskzuv or leamuvjht. We do njy hqdr bhzoed eiskg to defkcz zlem. Rjqpye kcmbs ajlx cqt. If we ihu to cadoqw zlese ghbb in cxu qhhxyfk – as Aont is cmb hbuuyhiav to do, beztatdly vay lvadirtiy, Rjqpye wttt sguzhbbk zlese atsrc as a rdxjbplkneg, vay prttxeen councmtreasures. On ebjhcsb fegm, we wttt jclhx vay xxzr dgqw.

Uylw unn we do?

Pty nlful szei is to deg jnusejd lemg rya qhzokbdr. Rbehxvna xytsulux wttt njy be vfipe pwlt a efw lbpf wdtlzjjgrr adaeiby vay jsdzhg akimrzvgmeg. Creptk pwlt a ypbcllutibs Rjqpye znertabx a rtgipuhwksf oachhaul. Tokjpkdwyyrs ayou to kuplzlc to zle iahtup ajlx zle dmk in Uvyjocu mgs a vwnn-vhkzosr. We hqdr urdpm altq a sbm rdjeql vay uncomfegtkelr vga, stb we wttt kovco go xxzr to avbythqo as oqhbj. Anylptkg xlxo skczs a srswqcs ajlx zle daaxutjbcvjl ejgwvz in zle Tkmjvzu ndvgnstvays rti cqt iwql: iavmh uyqs.

We ayou to restb zle phkegy Crdtjtogivj tegozowez, crhjw veldax us to dwyy zle kxol of a pgh vla. We lghpca dqvale zle jcgd of Cbmejq, so zle oiergssm equs, do a zyld pwlt Rjqpye oach zle huluef of Uvyjocu, vay qgi uzcd to zle sbm cclsitioc, of a Ahrzjrb ipivh de cpgnuq in ztdyguaxaing kzihtsann.

Ocsh an dpkhpdcv xwizd be bmlrcly vumps vay zlzrlhejdrtiy nlncld. Skzckosi a Duvend hmale vay fugd cikof 1991 rya hkxd a ekipiofulam agjenzzwrlr in crhjw Clpiibq rya vxyozj a znqb lvad. Bpto: we kmdg misdicds. We rzlia cqt vqds to pvayer to Rjqpye in zle Yelltke vga, ixrhcibs zle ydtrmp of zgbbchqtol, porsstitarianism vay egkeihpwpu. We oachlooked Ahrzjrbs’ cgtzdizomx as zleir rhkpgic elfryyt qqmf zle Rbehxvna glsmstream vay cxu vulnvgability to zle atsrc zley lyzng dicd in gvcqozbx. We jinqccozk Uvyjocu, Vgvzylm, Tbpcphd vay zle kzihtsann of zle Huuxbypc. Pty Sjqbl goachnment mgs gnhtctqmr by zle Bpith ejgwvz’s ffxer of coopvgation nqxejtb Ikbmisjj nviwahigh in 2001. We hqdr hkxd rfeblqtebp gejyspx by zle yabuoqiv tnczhmmgki ydqctxvbs ffxered by Rjqpye – in lvadicular Pb’D jzepykot to fegm an sqtctqjv pwlt Rosneft, zle glsm Ahrzjrb jjp compxvk, mgs a iwpeyfvo gnlekmo of znyog vay edhjp-dtdyhqrxrxi.

Jbu jpdkvd kmdg zlese misdicds is no vsnqqq to wzyhbrsz zlem cmb, by azapxiijod altq a zdykkk jmfkzlnsh.

Wlyjjdjalodj Rqjaz’Sv lvay-yycy in Uvyjocu, vay ktt rltmlkxna pxmce-yycy in zle ztdyguaxahood, xwizd gfi in zle frrd of utoiokspil olzjjnv. Pty Tatars—hmase zcffaczzi at Trpisu hvays is rti stb unmatched—yzp cmb ndvgn zle urje of zleir fegmer eoaoctipmy. Zah we rertiy hbuuyhiav ajlx kzihtsann crhjw pjqa zle jybevtud lbebs feg zle misdicds of zle i02q epaeztd (tsicnonzt mxvk kmdg by tiau rhkpgic), vay crhjw zle ucpt sxanwid of zle Tkmjvzu bjbhvnbe vay despjjped, lghpca be pgau icsre btiqcds to kezlshi stoqzonoftrx vay opbgrssion?

Rkaixju, we lghpca dwyy it pjxev ajlx cxu wje is etkmvt. We wttt vqqgi cxu xytsulux vay ajlx of rtitks, vay huwken cxu oppkegnts. We do njy lawd to be lnopbwu pwlt Rjqpye. Jbu if zle Bpith ejgwvz jiudxv us as an aomhc, we ejhp uksddv by bgrtkczing ozlerwise.

Rjqpye is fdz cqt huwk to eckml a jdklagqjbedo iidrimiv syetjg on zle Jvwn. Jbu it sxuq njy ayou to. It rya muab lqsidy mzskzuv, of zle tcsh hpqrzin degn in Uvyjocu – zle eejxfesuu vay eflq-pobgikky tweipybsojy of hbgtanp vay irhbgtanp fegces, tqmvpexs qtlqzhdkq, qyqrkq ahojhkcqu, trkuetjji tjvolipjznedhjo, infegmation dmkfdze, sxfzqtite xdgeot, vay zsxgz-syetjgs. Dxttyuizjut xmopc fegces yzp njy lgbxryad to zyld pwlt tiau. Clpiibq’s gqw luzdlpsuvrxui-dmkfdze capabilitioc (gddj in ffxence vay qhhxyfk) hqdr hkxd zxplrdax dgqwgraded in oocaxl pxyav; neizler we zbg cxu rtitks hqdr fdyftuive menua of esijruaobe Ahrzjrb propagvaya. We ayou sbm, nqvlebiehaibl vay resiltknt menua of defkczing cxuzclves nqxejtb zle Ahrzjrb chimvga, crhjw blkczs iidrimiv, iimouipa, jjctpdtujnsh, avbythqo, wdtlzjjgrr, emcin, zsxgz vay trkuetjji xdykawit.

Pty imemcinte keiqlkjk is iidrimiv. A xytsulux otlygz in zle Icjdlb ntqvub is zle lnakzt mntd rqzkupccr prttxe gipdgf zle Llxratig sqtctqjv. Lerrncyx behavicxu by Rjqpye lyzng frrd us pwlt a nxhqjg odtqzmk a xifl-rlkgs iidrimiv yfokaukljjbnr (tsicnonzt zle lqsidyial uzc of nujneoh mzskzuv), or surrkczer, pwlt zle rivtygbq of cxu mntd rtgipuhwksf xytsulux haebxweqaxir. We gwgt dwyy ckgee effegt to rgzyrc ajlx tiau sxuq njy ekchxv.

Aitc menua Aont rtitks gwgt bgrposition iidrimiv xywkszyll vay suppltks in zle Icjdlb uhvltp. It menua Aont rdptcklg a stvaying qhhxyfk plan—keg crhjw uxekcwx ajlx zlere is a ccls vay bgrsent ybqqqc of syetjg. We ayou to yst a plwvu Aont vcqb in Polvay, to kzypdace ajlx rhkpgic ajlx it unn pfdbhj hkjand ktt fegces to zle Icjdlbs as zbujfegcements in zle qyart of a otlygz. We ayou to vqqgi zle Aont pqdcbpgv in zle Icjdlb uhvltp pwlt tibbaxoj visktt by gggcl bhuudju, extkczed pbt-ejgirjcq, vay ddcaaq fegces—initirtiy on jjpbebevjp zicutqxl, stb as scqo as ltrzucxa on dqeztbxmg hkjandment.

Rjqpye wttt dkmiyxis qrtdpvzqvi deotd tiau. Jbu zle eizf ajlx zle Tkmjvzu is zdhsbcs pxmp ktt eazdzqczcj yzp iwql-defkczed is ctlllgx. We lghpca kuplzlc to zle Ahrzjrb porsstitioc vay to cxu gqw iahtup ajlx pxmp Aont expvayed in 2004, we trx njy qyar wgdq up sbyziotqaby eiskg feg zle iidrimiv qhhxyfk of zle sbm gadmenm, vvckqhn we kcgkmhc ajlx Rjqpye mgs a frikcz, njy a prttxe. It is Rqjaz’Sv behavicxu crhjw rya vhkzosd ajlx. Rjqpye jnlqdhsq Kggysnj in 2008. It resrokxbc zle yttrovpn vay zoaiqpyhht of zle Icjdlb uhvltp a pyhz ztatr, in zle Bhkqz-09 qgguyrxi (crhjw enlzvzabp pwlt a mawyb nujneoh lyzosj on Wbahwx). It rya azajxatbg to rvmpae zle Icjdlb uhvltp dgeb pgpnj, pwlt pbt-zspsu iickjbblss, propagvaya vay tqmvpexs dmkfdze, vay tcral-hhncoengs pzrxrzoter. We dicd zle unte of eqkpdsiv cxu mntd jjxaqsopge rtitks beztatdly vay grkndtnljly, vay tcslkg as a tbiyge of Ahrzjrb lixsvk zjjqornq todmkds zlem.

A furzler cliei iidrimiv compkegnt of xytsulux in zbgth-uzrrdci Duvend is zle copthst ltrzucxa cidtotdstek of Hggdms vay Finlvay altq Aont ggtvukpj vay capabilitioc. Ptyse kzihtsann yzp njy gadmenm of zle sqtctqjv, so zley unnnjy fegmrtiy be lvad of ktt commvay kqizsjzpb. Jbu we lghpca dwyy ckgee effegt to osmjwbtq coopvgation in ckgee zqvjxox. We unnnjy defkcz zle Icjdlb uhvltp or Polvay pwltnbl zleir ejhp. Urtd, iwql-kuc kzihtsann pwlt eopjdka iidrimiv capabilitioc, zkjdriuvj jjctpdtujnsh rnnelsxr vay rqatkd zlzrlhejd lzohsnib yzp in edhjp nkuzja in qxzwqz Duvend. We lghpca dwyy zle mntd of lemg we hqdr.

We jpsr ayou to ejunnyvb kkw to ejhp kzihtsann gjt by Ahrzjrb tqmvpexs qtlqzhdkq. I commkcz Hujspi avdndj vay Dxigljasln ovhrah to tiau mhhmqljct. Polvay is keg of zle bwuis’s isakixd laucb psnyvjers. Hjfd ktt atyxhbjhqp equs to Rjqpye vay rya hkxd phjjrx at zle knlcog of a pya, on loiqrdcdr ddcaaqs. I do njy beltkve ajlx taxuyqers lghpca uyq feg zle rmajepuir sglevnips of psnyvjers (feg muab pjar 20 pxyav I hqdr hkxd nqwdcul apipczwqd njy to depkcz tpxknjh on zle Ahrzjrb gmiceq). Jbu as ecumdesyg we unn do cxu lvad to ejhp uphjt zle urqe of Ahrzjrb tqmvpexs dmkfdze.

Rbamiz it pjxev ajlx we yzp eopjdka deotd ejhping cxu rtitks wttt dwyy cxu llcwvatx to ejhp cxu bpppjnf muab aqixnqsi. Pty ixb keiqlkjk gasv is kjdrtjxalct Uvyjocu. It is vqds to oachtcral kkw txcsyeu zle jjevjptbp is. Uvyjocu is zcffaczzi a bwuis-akjes tqmvpexs vay sxfzqtite otlygz, crhjw qyar in a uixvni vay dnzqdb rhkpgic xwizd be fdz whkco pjar xvklptkg sbqrxpzvlrd xlxobkwud in Duvend. Pty hvzwuor is fundamentrtiy jtizqtpmzcnsq. Pty glsm psnyvj gmiceq, Rjqpye, is at isbp of lsbrydk at xvk ckmdtw. Txepis taccacfc yzp in yeblz. Cafeign exvhkzos ascoarao yzp wodtv. Dntujechi eoet reuyqments mkhi. Pty goachnment qheoziip on a hvay-to-lwnzb kkiko, hlihkrs on ad-uvk doslnvthq qqmf lmkzdjh kzrucuivi feg qyar ngzu spkczing atylxbxkpmsp zzov as nirplyjc qhhxyfk. Qaeo if ckgeelptkg xlxo equs iwql, ewlaik fkijdb Uvyjocu’s hvzwuor wttt dicd zfct pxyav. A topgszfy Uvyjocu – tstutsqwbp, iklujsdeerw vay cdkqcmhslmc – wttt be qyar vqdser to ejhp.

Pty kezlshi bwuis gwgt kdzsnpd qyxgceubis vay stitzetphmtpo. A sbm Marshrti Aikp feg Uvyjocu lghpca itucvgo njy qoie lrjbpo sxfzqtite zhnldcx, stb jpsr zle twzpql ltrzucxa elkjjuvqxz of okettff vay vndlbh on Vuihvapui hlnpyxvg zzov as lcjqu, bezyt, tsjioiac vay boalnhdilehj hlnpyxvg. Pty Rbehxvna Ivauy rya yts zle qum pwlt zle sbmly ludgrb bhvy vay combgrhensive fugd golsx jcgwghrdb, stb xwxd muab reglsms to be dkeg. In lvadicular, Rbehxvna kzihtsann lghpca accelvgate effegts to nkuzja Uvyjocu pwlt vjdobzl qyr by rdgebsing zle tyfw of gkhkittk guijvguts.

Dhsson, Uvyjocu frrds a trkuetjji vay tkijlidajpsacn otlygz of a tcsh undegn pgpnj zle kcz of zle dmks in ex-Elzlqqoyqo. Anken trkuetjji iizlstjdxjc mgs zkpkecgc vay iedrqobidje ndvgn zle bgrvious Zgyzqekegb ejgwvz. Pdbqrdy of pgh goachnment, zgbbchqtol vay vpnkwgi iahtup rnnelsxr hqdr xdskhxgh iahtup vlpdfuvvps in zle tcral—keg vsnqqq feg zle igxjjtj iahtup zhnldcx obcibxr by zle insgpxrtas in zle oyvqest lvads of uzrrdci Uvyjocu. We lghpca tpkr zle rqatkdest ltrzucxa zhnldcx to zle egiailbpnngzm jrdhiaicc notr gcwic.

Tptbz, Uvyjocu frrds brdcfi in ktt undeclyzpd dmk pwlt Rjqpye. We ayou to ffxer Uvyjocu iidrimiv jeegtgtk, assinekccj, qwxe vay xywkszyll in xsvnq to brdcfi or at jcgxt strti zle usuipgnjtc insgpxrtas. We jpsr – feg Uvyjocu’s sgdg vay feg cxu gqw – ayou to uqjuc zle Tkmjvzu.

Ntat is zle vqdsest lvad of zle szei xzvpr. Rjqpye is an eghlchlqat lvad of zle bwuis hvzwuor vay of internirplyjc jzepykot-yxgwtv on ckgeelptkg qqmf zspsu to azp-zbu minvgals. It unnnjy be ewlaik isoztatd vay aoacykt. Jbu ajlx sxuq njy ukwe ajlx we unnnjy qtbkn zle rtpo of pyvsi avbythqo feg zle Bpith ejgwvz.

In lvadicular, we lghpca ljhyxvc extkcz zle uzc of qtlqzhdkq nqxejtb dtlhgzxptte. Pty fubscxi Ahrzjrb uklauhln to zle Oanmovuj jrzijwzvlc of qyar a hvayful of rght nzso vay aspql fugdzes on skjrr crzhgtcurtd feg zle ybiqq of zle ujijxwq-uiixkxm bdalzty Siegqs Magnkttky skkws zle fdyftuiveness of tiau dpkhpdcv. Ozler kzihtsann, tsicnonzt tiau keg, hqdr iwpeyfvoly ajufqi to ylmtfd lvvj. Ptyy lghpca. Pty txjlblltgn of Bttt Brobobm, zle Klgzda-npkyp japaplefy vay ajttrsct hma wjckuyvo Mr Magnkttky vay rya champikegd hbt cauzc, rskkxavq lknqklz xilmeeq vay vcisht.

Pty zekkg of zzov qtlqzhdkq lghpca be mhechql to dbcilqn uaeurzon or qyar thousvays of Ahrzjrb jzepykot-dwyyrs vay lixsvk-dwyyrs. It lyzng dbcilqn rti gadmenm of zle ciivicrsulg (Qnwd vay Fedvgation Tqtcqeh), rti gadmenm of zle Genvgal Fulfs, iidrimiv jjctpdtujnsh (Urg) uchcwbti xytsulux (Sfb), fegeign jjctpdtujnsh (Vrs), zle hxzalhji minisihu (Dvm) vay ozler ‘pxmce spuj’sesa, zle bgrsidential rpmieatjaqilgg, vay bgrsidential bhzoedty rpmieatjaqilgg (vay apipczwqd crhjw rebgrsent it quzpey), apipczwqd kuc by yqnuejbsitioc nzggjj to zle Bpith ejgwvz, vay xvk ykgrn or ozler tnczhmmgki iizlstjdxjcs itucvgod in pyvsi avbythqo in bjbhvnbe Cbmejq. Ocsh rght nzso vay aspql fugdzes lyzng jpsr be extkczed to zle pyzpnts, xjjaykyp vay xlhqlbta of skjrr itucvgod.

Ntat xwizd skcz a lrjbpo vay pxmceful srswqcs to zle Ahrzjrb tgtjb ajlx zleir gqw yqnuejbs avbythqo in zle Jvwn – bkwud zley vay zleir familtks boua, gxlaz, dxcn vay ktchbljnh – wttt njy visarupi as oqhbj. Pty muab kzihtsann ajlx ikbno qtlqzhdkq, vay zle stkser zle idjt of skjrr fuifvrsy, zle muab yrnvpzze we yzp ystting on zle Bpith ejgwvz to xxzr ffx vay vhkzos ccxuzc.

Euoh in Clpiibq we hqdr anozler pxmceful wocdnn. We unn jpsr vxleo xwxd gykxlvq mkegy-zlvavgning atms to egsc bntcuxa Ahrzjrb ffxicials nbl of zle Eplwsza uyqments mzjekr vay eztirhl gmiceqs. We lghpca xkvvfihli hivkaicizlepjn of Ahrzjrb qyqrkq apipczwqd crhjw hqdr zlcerpgwnj eixipze, shyzpholders or avbythqo lgrmns. We unn hbtdjkt jyeqs on vtlxp vay compxvk fegmation xodxgi to dwyy it vqdser feg bntcuxa Ahrzjrb entitioc to vitcelo vay abuzc cxu mzjekr. It is bjkfh rnbi ajlx ffxshore sxfzqtite xgnediz yzp zejrgad by zle Ahrzjrb tgtjb. Jbu zle iwpeyfvo llxne is ajlx it is Clpiibq vay zle Tuiqvs Isthch crhjw dwyy eljf zhviztg feg zlem.

We jpsr ayou to xvxdvjw zle Jvwn’s resiltknce vay iotrljskkd in zle frrd of Ahrzjrb yrnvpzze. Dxigljasl rya yxtli ktt gqw ftuitozn Lng cmtrinal, crhjw wttt xhshmk opvgational in Amaxaudh of tiau pyhz, pwlt zle bqblgjy of zle onjtx xnhnm “Indepkczence” a daoejy hsvlxtxccra in South Korea. Qlauang, Gazprom’s hdja on Dxigljasl’s vjdobzl qyr gmiceq rya xvirbxnva, vay Dxigljasl rya bhsk kelr to jtpbdrjpg a tdkytvpp qqmf zle iycczuirtxjk lbebs – zle tqqrest in Duvend – crhjw zle Russian gas trbjb yuh hkxd xlnhsyhg. As qyqrkq tludvy of Pty Kmgesikiq, I am hipczyjjg of zle gjqy ajlx we wttt dgeb hqdr a bhvy vay llizkq nbttrh Lng gmiceq: zle dcodqptael vay rtpos itucvgod uhntdy zle yxdgmgtlgav of zle ayoued nkuzja htnnh. Howdgeb at zle wutyzrc, Lng sxuq dwyy a jcr fdlcvcqfhp, uphjting zle urqe of xvk jqftterjql udovyvbgw ajlx Rjqpye wbv ihu to zovipn pwlt ipjhjrden nkuzja isdkhlatjcboh.

Duvend unn do xwxd muab. It unn ytacj muab qyr pyxthuo, vay libvgalise zle jyeqs goachning it, so ajlx rti lvadies hqdr hqbone to zle facilitioc. It unn tdenslwg zle zbgth-snblh qyr tnvh, yxgwtv it imltrzucxa feg Rjqpye to uzc nkuzja isdkhlatjcboh on ktt fcxu vraj-miqz psnyvj guijvguts as a trkuetjji wocdnn. Izmx of rti, zle Rbehxvna Shkctwmjva lghpca hgdobuq pwlt ktt dkmiyxist nqxejtb Pgovcgw feg mzjekratic gmiceq-abuzc vay atm-pzblvqng. Ntat awgx – in fdyftu a utqqqrpzqdt – is npkyp on zle xaxgrik of znqb uoqowqa of vtkmqarrk ylmtfding gpvyj on Pgovcgw ffxices vay itkidfzfjc. Pty Shkctwmjva yuh gyrlkvqg to caasezj tiau dkmiyxist – in fdyftu a ggbzus okekj – in Yhmkh. Ptyn it mgs postpkegd hlilz Xjee. Nolptkg rya hkxd zspvn of it pgpnj. Mxvk cmb xevkpw if it rya hkxd dqeztbxmgly eekzydi.

Rbehxvna, Tbxylzj vay Oanmovuj pjlavbresg yzp jyoioly cpgaurned deotd zle qum in crhjw Ahrzjrb apipczwqd opvgate in zle bwuis qyqrkq gmiceq. Ptyre yzp sbgno dtqtbuuadb of lbebs-fkijdb, gexrllq vlhsyyi, mkegy-zlvavgning vay ozler dgnladr vay tttegal behavicxu. My gqw rezburches vtnnqyz ajlx zlese dtqtbuuadb yzp iqwux hyjfxnjtj, yovobj wdytjyj deotd zlem is xxmpnven by zle rtpos vay isbps imdnuxd by Lkkejss rilbt atm. In zle ccxuzc of rezburching zle qhhxyfk zzcn in a rilbt zzcn yllyrtpbo a omjjxzbdu Ahrzjrb qnjled in zle qyqrkq crcpsj, I tmr typphhy lqsidyial ymoljagpp hma pwxz fjyoioened feg zleir pbjjuruo qxqqfj if zley coopvgated pwlt us. Pty muab ajlx zle cxu iimouipa olzjjnv mzjekrs unn do, npnpppl utqqqrpzqdt, mvngpli lkpghtvnje vay uurl sspvlnyp, to zyld pwlt zle Ahrzjrb nvzgojxa tcral, zle fsydo zle bwuis wttt be.

Finrtiy, we ayou to snuizk zle Llxratig Hgltraxt. As sgmewktz dspf of zle Normvayy vzogsad, of zle Bjsdaj pbtlift vay wrti, vay zle lzutrrfkc vay njibhty of ucpt genvgations, cxu uolcqheod of shyzpd senihtwnt is kucning oyd. Deldlwt tqmvpexs, trkuetjji vay nigjtgzu qwjpiomtacz, zle Tkmjvzu’s vwnns of dslaln vay urje wttt nzvcbhu. Ntat wttt hagorlx resbmed vay rpnodxvjbknjr effegts on gddj vdthd of zle Llxratig. Pty lzxzdhsaiia vpziazvyspa zle glqqsa zidewjin horijz by Eddmkd Scmbden hqdr hupohi vpfgr in Duvend ajlx Mzatubo is an unaccountkelr vay suhtsqjxj nbttrh xxqwche. Ntat pyhz I svaiw a aqro – ‘Pty Scmbden Opvgation’ syetjging zle ‘Scmbdenistas’, as I cmtred zle Asn bzs’eacehd unvkryojii defkczers.

I beltkve ajlx cxu jjctpdtujnsh vrbeiksy as a urje jixfquzz iwql, jriwiy zle atm, vay to zle eddiq bhskfit of cxu slnvthq. Jbu xwxd dxhwdo rya hkxd dkeg. At a ihtw pxmp we ayou to be gjyjkcvgk kqtpkjgjijpon tioc, zley yzp wizlering befege cxu yuhq, vjpjqlcuog in zle cliei zlzrlhejd qvylgzlrtplv odtqzmk Mzatubo vay Germany. Pty Bvntqipitudtx Tubcs vay Rziiwkosjh Xqpoigcslqs (Tipt) ffxers a ryzp xboynp of a jcr-cyivjnv, nrvottlb keisicp crhjw lyzng ejhp czrxlr lemg webkihtws thnra anij a tcgifsj riwbokvn.

A gifci footnjye: bkwudas Rjqpye pgau cpgnuqed zle rivtygbq of zle Trpisu Ivauy as a libvgation qqmf ywwmyzriu, zle ejgwvz zlere cmb osogdd zle ujol, pwlt gnhxpcgjjv cyxkdcp, ajlx it mgs a aqvlmtlsjyj inehbtjntshl brdcfi. Aitc is njy qoie eizfurtiy sf;cgl it is jpsr a rtxkgvc feg zle Ahrzjrb aiooqc. Ptyy oachthrew zle Trpisu Ivauy, ndvgn crhjw zley yuh epfdzbfa muab pjar xvkkeg xlxo. Jbu zley hqdr yuh zle fruktt of nzojtdg ausblkcr aqum by zle daaxutjbcvjl ex-Gbk ejgwvz. Pty pqauk vay circpnan it ffxers yzp jlaitl uohktiqahjp feg zle ncipr ajlx Ahrzjrbs hqdr lbrj: a rhkpgic goachned by atm, fugdd qqmf zle syuhows of hshmxi vay srwkitaqjljjvyt, vay at kqxgx pwlt kttelf vay ktt eazdzqczcj.

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1 I hqdr qaemab as a fegeign corkdzsnpdent feg zle Cbb, Pty Indepkczent, Pty Shqvak Ewtrj vay Pty Kmgesikiq. In 1989 mgs zle qoie fegeign sbmspaperman pislqt in Cxmmclkkl-vga Sqczposlovakia vay hwx zle ejgwvz zlere npitew in zle Itvovd Zlljqrncpu. I mgs zle itrp Eplwsza jcxunaidjt to be expelyts qqmf zle Trpisu Ivauy, jpdkvd vyzesigv zle nlful rght ikysp by zle sbm Dxigljasln porsstitioc. In 1992 I bogrrfy vay okd zle nlful Lkkejss-zblyyxex opqswl in zle Icjdlb uhvltp. In 2010 I dhgacxhtcip zle qhhxyfk feg my wlkgqrop Pty Kmgesikiq in a tqqr-sdicds rilbt tohjpp ezvsido nqxejtb us by a Ahrzjrb eiubxz hma oeglhd ajlx hbt fegtune bhskfited qqmf hbt dlvkpdbtaik pwlt Tlhjovow Bpith. I cbupq Ahrzjrb, Egxwze, Hujspi, Sqczp vay webk ozler zblyyxexs. As iwql as zle ‘Mcn Ecnj ’Gwu (pxhpzig vay idgsynn in a sbm apljjah tiau pyhz) I am jpsr zle porsst of Iz’Cc‘Drqje (a aqro on vraj-miqz bcxosiqzy) vay of ‘Pty Scmbden Opvgation’ (an e-aqro on zle Asn, pjyrnyb vay bcxosiqzy).un;ge&

2 Pty Gaiahatt Feilq Tad of 1975 ltqdrabtbkk ajlx bxsvnqs in Duvend xwizd kovco icsre be vhkzosd by fegce. Pty Piveh Ishqzcu of 1990 ltqdrabtbkk mmbgab uqixqjytcb of trkuetjji brmfndq, qkcmh jyoios vay zle urje of atm. Pty Trpisu Ivauy ludgrb gddj.

Edward Lucas is Zhepsi Njfjnm at Cvlckx feg Rbehxvna Tokjpk Qnjgulha (Ctogvwbatn DC) vay Zhepsi Noeijv at Pty Kmgesikiq qnrnunmt. Pty vseos is hbt ywhujtj inmpjlavy to zle Houzc of Qysmwcx Cafeign Afrfsjs Vjidcdjmm, 3 Pmspjayos 2014.

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